Author
Listed:
- Luz Maria Sánchez-Romero
- Joanne Penko
- Pamela G Coxson
- Alicia Fernández
- Antoinette Mason
- Andrew E Moran
- Leticia Ávila-Burgos
- Michelle Odden
- Simón Barquera
- Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo
Abstract
Background: Rates of diabetes in Mexico are among the highest worldwide. In 2014, Mexico instituted a nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in order to reduce the high level of SSB consumption, a preventable cause of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We used an established computer simulation model of CVD and country-specific data on demographics, epidemiology, SSB consumption, and short-term changes in consumption following the SSB tax in order to project potential long-range health and economic impacts of SSB taxation in Mexico. Methods and Findings: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model–Mexico, a state transition model of Mexican adults aged 35–94 y, to project the potential future effects of reduced SSB intake on diabetes incidence, CVD events, direct diabetes healthcare costs, and mortality over 10 y. Model inputs included short-term changes in SSB consumption in response to taxation (price elasticity) and data from government and market research surveys and public healthcare institutions. Two main scenarios were modeled: a 10% reduction in SSB consumption (corresponding to the reduction observed after tax implementation) and a 20% reduction in SSB consumption (possible with increases in taxation levels and/or additional measures to curb consumption). Given uncertainty about the degree to which Mexicans will replace calories from SSBs with calories from other sources, we evaluated a range of values for calorie compensation. Conclusions: Mexico’s high diabetes prevalence represents a public health crisis. While the long-term impact of Mexico’s SSB tax is not yet known, these projections, based on observed consumption reductions, suggest that Mexico’s SSB tax may substantially decrease morbidity and mortality from diabetes and CVD while reducing healthcare costs. Using consumption trends following the implementation of Mexico's tax on sugar sweetened beverages, Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo and colleagues estimate the tax's impact on diabetes cases, cardiovascular events, mortality and healthcare costs over the next ten years.Why Was This Study Done?: What Did the Researchers Do and Find?: What Do These Findings Mean?:
Suggested Citation
Luz Maria Sánchez-Romero & Joanne Penko & Pamela G Coxson & Alicia Fernández & Antoinette Mason & Andrew E Moran & Leticia Ávila-Burgos & Michelle Odden & Simón Barquera & Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, 2016.
"Projected Impact of Mexico’s Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policy on Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: A Modeling Study,"
PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
Handle:
RePEc:plo:pmed00:1002158
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002158
Download full text from publisher
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1002158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosmedicine (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through
the various RePEc services.