IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pmed00/1001451.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Contribution of H. pylori and Smoking Trends to US Incidence of Intestinal-Type Noncardia Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A Microsimulation Model

Author

Listed:
  • Jennifer M Yeh
  • Chin Hur
  • Deb Schrag
  • Karen M Kuntz
  • Majid Ezzati
  • Natasha Stout
  • Zachary Ward
  • Sue J Goldie

Abstract

: Jennifer Yeh and colleagues examine the contribution of IHelicobacter pyloriI and smoking trends to the incidence of past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma. Background: Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. Methods and Findings: We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men,

Suggested Citation

  • Jennifer M Yeh & Chin Hur & Deb Schrag & Karen M Kuntz & Majid Ezzati & Natasha Stout & Zachary Ward & Sue J Goldie, 2013. "Contribution of H. pylori and Smoking Trends to US Incidence of Intestinal-Type Noncardia Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A Microsimulation Model," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-13, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1001451
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001451
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1001451
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1001451&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001451?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marjorie A. Rosenberg & Eric J. Feuer & Binbing Yu & Jiafeng Sun & S. Jane Henley & Thomas G Shanks & Christy M. Anderson & Pamela M. McMahon & Michael J. Thun & David M. Burns, 2012. "Chapter 3: Cohort Life Tables by Smoking Status, Removing Lung Cancer as a Cause of Death," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 25-38, August.
    2. Mendez, D. & Warner, K.E., 2004. "Adult Cigarette Smoking Prevalence: Declining as Expected (Not as Desired)," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 94(2), pages 251-252.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. William D. Hazelton & Jihyoun Jeon & Rafael Meza & Suresh H. Moolgavkar, 2012. "Chapter 8: The FHCRC Lung Cancer Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 99-116, August.
    2. Rosemary Avery & Donald Kenkel & Dean R. Lillard & Alan Mathios, 2007. "Private Profits and Public Health: Does Advertising of Smoking Cessation Products Encourage Smokers to Quit?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(3), pages 447-481.
    3. Jason Boardman & Casey Blalock & Fred Pampel & Peter Hatemi & Andrew Heath & Lindon Eaves, 2011. "Population Composition, Public Policy, and the Genetics of Smoking," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1517-1533, November.
    4. Ahmad, Sajjad, 2005. "Closing the youth access gap: The projected health benefits and cost savings of a national policy to raise the legal smoking age to 21 in the United States," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 74-84, December.
    5. Pamela M. McMahon & Chung Yin Kong & Bruce E. Johnson & Milton C. Weinstein & Jane C. Weeks & Angela C. Tramontano & Lauren E. Cipriano & Colleen Bouzan & G. Scott Gazelle, 2012. "Chapter 9: The MGH‐HMS Lung Cancer Policy Model: Tobacco Control Versus Screening," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 117-124, August.
    6. Antwan Jones & Angelika Gulbis & Elizabeth Baker, 2010. "Differences in tobacco use between Canada and the United States," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 55(3), pages 167-175, June.
    7. Eric D Vugrin & Brian L Rostron & Stephen J Verzi & Nancy S Brodsky & Theresa J Brown & Conrad J Choiniere & Blair N Coleman & Antonio Paredes & Benjamin J Apelberg, 2015. "Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies: A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-26, March.
    8. Pamela M. McMahon & William D. Hazelton & Marek Kimmel & Lauren D. Clarke, 2012. "Chapter 13: CISNET Lung Models: Comparison of Model Assumptions and Model Structures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 166-178, August.
    9. Levy, David T. & Hyland, Andrew & Higbee, Cheryl & Remer, Lillian & Compton, Christine, 2007. "The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence in California: Results from the California Tobacco Policy Simulation Model," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 167-185, July.
    10. Rosemary Avery & Donald Kenkel & Dean Lillard & Alan Mathios, 2007. "Regulating advertisements: the case of smoking cessation products," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 185-208, April.
    11. David T. Levy & Luz María Sánchez-Romero & Nargiz Travis & Zhe Yuan & Yameng Li & Sarah Skolnick & Jihyoun Jeon & Jamie Tam & Rafael Meza, 2021. "US Nicotine Vaping Product SimSmoke Simulation Model: The Effect of Vaping and Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-22, May.
    12. Jihyoun Jeon & Rafael Meza & Martin Krapcho & Lauren D. Clarke & Jeff Byrne & David T. Levy, 2012. "Chapter 5: Actual and Counterfactual Smoking Prevalence Rates in the U.S. Population via Microsimulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 51-68, August.
    13. Ahmad, Sajjad & Billimek, John, 2007. "Limiting youth access to tobacco: Comparing the long-term health impacts of increasing cigarette excise taxes and raising the legal smoking age to 21 in the United States," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 378-391, March.
    14. Eric J. Feuer & David T. Levy & William J. McCarthy, 2012. "Chapter 1: The Impact of the Reduction in Tobacco Smoking on U.S. Lung Cancer Mortality, 1975–2000: An Introduction to the Problem," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(s1), pages 6-13, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1001451. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosmedicine (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.