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Nonstationary Influence of El Niño on the Synchronous Dengue Epidemics in Thailand

Author

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  • Bernard Cazelles
  • Mario Chavez
  • Anthony J McMichael
  • Simon Hales

Abstract

Background: Several factors, including environmental and climatic factors, influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Nevertheless, the identification and relative importance of climatic factors for vector-borne diseases remain controversial. Dengue is the world's most important viral vector-borne disease, and the controversy about climatic effects also applies in this case. Here we address the role of climate variability in shaping the interannual pattern of dengue epidemics. Methods and Findings: We have analysed monthly data for Thailand from 1983 to 1997 using wavelet approaches that can describe nonstationary phenomena and that also allow the quantification of nonstationary associations between time series. We report a strong association between monthly dengue incidence in Thailand and the dynamics of El Niño for the 2–3-y periodic mode. This association is nonstationary, seen only from 1986 to 1992, and appears to have a major influence on the synchrony of dengue epidemics in Thailand. Conclusion: The underlying mechanism for the synchronisation of dengue epidemics may resemble that of a pacemaker, in which intrinsic disease dynamics interact with climate variations driven by El Niño to propagate travelling waves of infection. When association with El Niño is strong in the 2–3-y periodic mode, one observes high synchrony of dengue epidemics over Thailand. When this association is absent, the seasonal dynamics become dominant and the synchrony initiated in Bangkok collapses. In Thailand, dengue transmission patterns are complex, with El Nino showing an association with some epidemics only; other reasons will need to be found for the initiation of other outbreaks. :

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Cazelles & Mario Chavez & Anthony J McMichael & Simon Hales, 2005. "Nonstationary Influence of El Niño on the Synchronous Dengue Epidemics in Thailand," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(4), pages 1-1, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:0020106
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0020106
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    1. Dharmaratne Amarakoon & Anthony Chen & Sam Rawlins & Dave Chadee & Michael Taylor & Roxann Stennett, 2008. "Dengue epidemics in the Caribbean-temperature indices to gauge the potential for onset of dengue," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 341-357, May.
    2. Taynãna C Simões & Cláudia T Codeço & Aline A Nobre & Álvaro E Eiras, 2013. "Modeling the Non-Stationary Climate Dependent Temporal Dynamics of Aedes aegypti," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(8), pages 1-10, August.
    3. Hai-Yan Xu & Xiuju Fu & Lionel Kim Hock Lee & Stefan Ma & Kee Tai Goh & Jiancheng Wong & Mohamed Salahuddin Habibullah & Gary Kee Khoon Lee & Tian Kuay Lim & Paul Anantharajah Tambyah & Chin Leong Lim, 2014. "Statistical Modeling Reveals the Effect of Absolute Humidity on Dengue in Singapore," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(5), pages 1-11, May.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Petr Zeman, 2019. "Prolongation of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Cycles in Warmer Climatic Conditions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-10, November.
    6. Ting-Wu Chuang & Luis Fernando Chaves & Po-Jiang Chen, 2017. "Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-20, June.
    7. Julián Alfredo Fernández-Niño & Claudia Iveth Astudillo-García & Ietza Bojorquez-Chapela & Evangelina Morales-Carmona & Airain Alejandra Montoya-Rodriguez & Lina Sofia Palacio-Mejia, 2016. "The Mexican Cycle of Suicide: A National Analysis of Seasonality, 2000-2013," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
    8. Jeon-Young Kang & Jared Aldstadt, 2017. "The Influence of Spatial Configuration of Residential Area and Vector Populations on Dengue Incidence Patterns in an Individual-Level Transmission Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, July.
    9. Xavier Rodó & Mercedes Pascual & Francisco Doblas-Reyes & Alexander Gershunov & Dáithí Stone & Filippo Giorgi & Peter Hudson & James Kinter & Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias & Nils Stenseth & David Alons, 2013. "Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 625-640, June.
    10. Yoon Ling Cheong & Katrin Burkart & Pedro J. Leitão & Tobia Lakes, 2013. "Assessing Weather Effects on Dengue Disease in Malaysia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, November.

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