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Optimizing spatial allocation of seasonal influenza vaccine under temporal constraints

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  • Srinivasan Venkatramanan
  • Jiangzhuo Chen
  • Arindam Fadikar
  • Sandeep Gupta
  • Dave Higdon
  • Bryan Lewis
  • Madhav Marathe
  • Henning Mortveit
  • Anil Vullikanti

Abstract

Prophylactic interventions such as vaccine allocation are some of the most effective public health policy planning tools. The supply of vaccines, however, is limited and an important challenge is to optimally allocate the vaccines to minimize epidemic impact. This resource allocation question (which we refer to as VaccIntDesign) has multiple dimensions: when, where, to whom, etc. Most of the existing literature in this topic deals with the latter (to whom), proposing policies that prioritize individuals by age and disease risk. However, since seasonal influenza spread has a typical spatial trend, and due to the temporal constraints enforced by the availability schedule, the when and where problems become equally, if not more, relevant. In this paper, we study the VaccIntDesign problem in the context of seasonal influenza spread in the United States. We develop a national scale metapopulation model for influenza that integrates both short and long distance human mobility, along with realistic data on vaccine uptake. We also design GreedyAlloc, a greedy algorithm for allocating the vaccine supply at the state level under temporal constraints and show that such a strategy improves over the current baseline of pro-rata allocation, and the improvement is more pronounced for higher vaccine efficacy and moderate flu season intensity. Further, the resulting strategy resembles a ring vaccination applied spatiallyacross the US.Author summary: Annual vaccination campaigns continue to be one of the prime measures which help alleviate the burden of seasonal influenza. Due to production and logistic constraints, there is a need for prioritization policies associated with vaccine deployment. While there is general consensus on age-based or risk-based prioritization, spatial optimization of vaccine allocation has not yet been explored in sufficient detail. In order to do this, we develop a mechanistic model of influenza spread across the United States, and propose a greedy mechanism for spatial optimization. We test the methodology on different realistic scenarios with temporal constraints on vaccine production.

Suggested Citation

  • Srinivasan Venkatramanan & Jiangzhuo Chen & Arindam Fadikar & Sandeep Gupta & Dave Higdon & Bryan Lewis & Madhav Marathe & Henning Mortveit & Anil Vullikanti, 2019. "Optimizing spatial allocation of seasonal influenza vaccine under temporal constraints," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1007111
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard C. Larson & Anna Teytelman & Stan Finkelstein, 2013. "Operations Research and Homeland Security: Overview and Case Study of Pandemic Influenza," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Jeffrey W. Herrmann (ed.), Handbook of Operations Research for Homeland Security, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 25-43, Springer.
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    3. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A.T. Cummings & Simon Cauchemez & Christophe Fraser & Steven Riley & Aronrag Meeyai & Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Donald S. Burke, 2005. "Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7056), pages 209-214, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juliano Marçal Lopes & Coralys Colon Morales & Michelle Alvarado & Vidal Augusto Z. C. Melo & Leonardo Batista Paiva & Eduardo Mario Dias & Panos M. Pardalos, 2022. "Optimization methods for large-scale vaccine supply chains: a rapid review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 316(1), pages 699-721, September.
    2. Shahparvari, Shahrooz & Hassanizadeh, Behnam & Mohammadi, Alireza & Kiani, Behzad & Lau, Kwok Hung & Chhetri, Prem & Abbasi, Babak, 2022. "A decision support system for prioritised COVID-19 two-dosage vaccination allocation and distribution," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Linus Nyiwul, 2021. "Epidemic Control and Resource Allocation: Approaches and Implications for the Management of COVID-19," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 9(2), pages 283-305, December.

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