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Plane inclinations: A critique of hypothesis and model choice in Barbi et al

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  • Saul Justin Newman

Abstract

This study highlights how the mortality plateau in Barbi and colleagues can be generated by low-frequency, randomly distributed age-misreporting errors. Furthermore, sensitivity of the late-life mortality plateau in Barbi and colleagues to the particular age range selected for regression is illustrated. Collectively, the simulation of age-misreporting errors in late-life human mortality data and a less-specific model choice than that of Barbi and colleagues highlight a clear alternative hypothesis to explanations based on evolution, the cessation of ageing, and population heterogeneity.This Formal Comment raises fundamental issues regarding the apparent late-life mortality plateau proposed in Science by Barbi et al. 2018, and on the nature of documentary birth and death certificate evidence in general.

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  • Saul Justin Newman, 2018. "Plane inclinations: A critique of hypothesis and model choice in Barbi et al," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-4, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pbio00:3000048
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3000048
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    1. Saul Justin Newman, 2018. "Errors as a primary cause of late-life mortality deceleration and plateaus," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-12, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Camarda, Carlo Giovanni, 2022. "The curse of the plateau. Measuring confidence in human mortality estimates at extreme ages," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 24-36.
    2. Li, Hong & Tan, Ken Seng & Tuljapurkar, Shripad & Zhu, Wenjun, 2021. "Gompertz law revisited: Forecasting mortality with a multi-factor exponential model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 268-281.

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