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Measuring the Underground Economy and its Impact on the Economy of Pakistan

Author

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  • Bushra Yasmin
  • Hira Rauf

Abstract

This study focuses on the measurement of the underground economy (UGE) through tax evasion in Pakistan over the time period 1974-2002. The monetary approach is applied in order to estimate the underground economy. First, the currency demand equation is estimated and then an attempt is made to deduce the size of the underground economy and tax evasion. Finally, an Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Model is applied in order to estimate the impact of the underground economy on Gross Domestic Product of Pakistan for a selected time period. The results demonstrated that the underground economy has increased enormously from Rs. 12 billion in 1974 to Rs. 1085 billion in 2002. The findings suggest that the existence of such a large UGE can decrease tax revenues, depress GDP, and raise socio-economic problems. Frequent tax audits and heavier penalties for tax evasion may minimise the size of the underground economy with its ill effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Bushra Yasmin & Hira Rauf, 2004. "Measuring the Underground Economy and its Impact on the Economy of Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 93-103, Jul-Dec.
    • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:9:y:2004:i:2:p:93-103
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehnaz Ahmed & Qazi Masood Ahmed, 1995. "Estimation of the Black Economy of Pakistan through the Monetary Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 791-807.
    2. Zafar Iqbal & Sarfraz Khan Qureshi & Riaz Mahmood, 1998. "The Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan. A Fresh Assessment," PIDE-Working Papers 1998:158, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. M. Ali Kemal, 2007. "A Fresh Assessment of the Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan : Causes, Consequences, and Linkages with the Formal Economy," Microeconomics Working Papers 22200, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Salar, Laleena & Zaman, Khalid & Khilji, Bashir Ahmad & Khan, Muhammad Mushtaq & Lodhi, Mohammad Saeed, 2013. "The consequences of revenue gap in Pakistan: Unveiling the reality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 281-294.
    3. Anastasiou Athanasios & Kalamara Eleni & Kalligosfyris Charalampos, 2020. "Estimation of the size of tax evasion in Greece," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 97-107.
    4. Q M Ahmed & M Haider Hussain, 2008. "Estimating the Black Economy through a Monetary Approach: A Case Study of Pakistan," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 13(1), pages 45-60, March.
    5. Robina Ather Ahmed & Mark Rider, 2013. "Using Microdata to Estimate Pakistan’s Tax Gap by Type of Tax," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(3), pages 334-359, May.
    6. Gamal, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed & Rambeli, Norimah & Abdul Jalil, Norasibah & Kuperan Viswanathan, K., 2019. "A modified Currency Demand Function and the Malaysian shadow economy: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 266-281.
    7. Ahmed Gulzar & Novaira Junaid & Adnan Haider, 2010. "What is Hidden in the Hidden Economy of Pakistan? Size, Causes, Issues, and Implications," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 665-704.
    8. Rafat MAHMOOD & Eatzaz AHMAD, 2015. "Measurement Of Import Smuggling In Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 25(2), pages 135-159.
    9. Khurrum S. Mughal & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2020. "How Informal Sector Affects the Formal Economy in Pakistan? A Lesson for Developing Countries," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(1), pages 7-21, June.
    10. Mughal, Khurrum & Schneider, Friedrich, 2018. "Shadow Economy in Pakistan: Its Size and Interaction with Official Economy," MPRA Paper 87087, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal & Jauhari Dahalan & K. Kuperan Viswanathan, 2020. "An econometric analysis of the underground economy and tax evasion in Kuwait," International Journal of Business and Globalisation, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 25(3), pages 307-331.
    12. Saeed Karimi Petanlar & Ahmad Jafari Samimi & Alireza Aminkhaki, 2011. "An Estimation of Tax Evasion in Iran," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 3(1), pages 8-12.
    13. Muhammad Naveed Jamil & Abdul Rasheed & Adnan Maqbool & Zeeshan Mukhtar, 2023. "Cross-cultural study the macro variables and its impact on exchange rate regimes," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    14. Khurrum S. Mughal & Friedrich G. Schneider & Zafar Hayat, 2020. "Intensity of Regulations as a Cause of the Informal Sector," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 15(2), pages 135-154, August.
    15. Misbah Kiani & Adeel Ahmed & Khalid Zaman, 2015. "Combining qualitative and quantitative approaches for measuring underground economy of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 295-317, January.
    16. Omar Ashraf & M. Ali Kemal, 2019. "Exploring the Determinants of Underground Economy of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2019:163, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.

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