IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pid/journl/v44y2005i4p921-937.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Analysis of Exports and Growth in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad A. Quddus

    (Punjab Economic Research Institute, Planning and Development Department, Government of the Punjab, Lahore.)

  • Ikram Saeed

    (Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), Islamabad.)

Abstract

The paper examines the export-led growth (ELG) paradigm for Pakistan, using data of the period from 1970-71 to 2003-04. The paper uses a number of analytical tools, including Unit Root Test, Phillips- Perron Tests, Co-integration Johansen Test, and the Granger Tests. The paper sets three hypotheses for testing the ELG paradigm for Pakistan; (a) whether GDP and exports are cointegrated, (b) whether exports Granger cause growth, and (c) whether exports Granger cause investment. The time series data on GDP growth, export growth and investment GDP ratio (proxy for capital formation), and the labour employed were used. The data were tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and Phillips-Perron test (1988), and then the relationship between GDP growth rate and the growth rate of other variables was determined using OLS with AR (1). The major finding of the present study is that growth rate of export, total investment, and labour employed have positively affected the GDP growth rate

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad A. Quddus & Ikram Saeed, 2005. "An Analysis of Exports and Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 921-937.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:921-937
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/921-937.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    4. Chow, Peter C. Y., 1987. "Causality between export growth and industrial development : Empirial evidence from the NICs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-63, June.
    5. Krueger, Anne O, 1990. "Asian Trade and Growth Lessons," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 108-112, May.
    6. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    7. repec:bla:devpol:v:23:y:2005:i:3:p:285-298 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fatima Subhani & Atif Yaseen & Bashir Ahemd Khan & Anees Ayyub, 2017. "Productivity and Externality Effects of Exports: An Application of FEDER Model in Pakistan and India," Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 5(1), pages :36-60, June.
    2. Ambreen FATEMAH & Abdul QAYYUM, 2018. "Modeling the impact of exports on the economic growth of Pakistan," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 56-64, March.
    3. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    4. Khalid Mahmood & Shehla Munir, 2018. "Agricultural exports and economic growth in Pakistan: an econometric reassessment," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1561-1574, July.
    5. Shivneil Kumar Raj & Priteshni Pratibha Chand, 2017. "Analysis of Fiji’s Export and Its Impact on Economic Growth," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 7(4), pages 1-14, April.
    6. Shivneil Kumar Raj & Priteshni Pratibha Chand, 2017. "Analysis of Fiji’s Export and Its Impact on Economic Growth," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 7(4), pages 1-14, April.
    7. Amir Azam, 2020. "The Impact of Industrial Policy on Export Diversification: Some Empirical Evidences from Pakistan," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 5(1), pages 84-96, March.
    8. Ritu Rani & Naresh Kumar, 2018. "Is There an Export- or Import-led Growth in BRICS Countries? An Empirical Investigation," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 7(1), pages 13-23, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ana María Cuadros Ramos, 2000. "Exportaciones y crecimiento económico: Un análisis de causalidad para México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 15(1), pages 37-64.
    2. Eleanor Doyle, 1998. "Export-output causality: The Irish case 1953–93," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(2), pages 147-161, June.
    3. Emilio J. Medina-Smith, 2000. "Is The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid For Developing Countries? A Case Study Of Costa Rica," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 7, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    4. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Muhammad Javid & Frederick L. Joutz, 2022. "Saudi Non-Oil Exports before and after COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, February.
    5. Mohammad Afzal & Ijaz Hussain, 2010. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 130-147, January.
    6. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    7. Ashfaque H. Khan & Afia Malik & Lubna Hasan, 1995. "Exports, Growth and Causality: An Application of Co-integration and Error-correction Modelling," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1001-1012.
    8. Eleanor Doyle & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2006. "Relating Productivity and Trade 1980-2000: A Chicken and Egg Analysis," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 147, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Onafowora, Olugbenga A. & Owoye, Oluwole, 1998. "Can Trade Liberalization Stimulate Economic Growth in Africa?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 497-506, March.
    10. Khalafalla, Khalid Yousif & Webb, Alan J., 2000. "Exports And Economic Growth Under Structural Change: A Co-Integration Analysis Of Evidence From Malaysia," Working Papers 14595, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    11. Mousumi Bhattacharya & Sharad Nath Bhattacharya, 2011. "The Interrelationship Between Merchandise Trade, Economic Growth and FDI Inflows in India," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 9(2), pages 229-244.
    12. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2013. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 39-60, August.
    13. Waithe, Kimberly & Lorde, Troy & Francis, Brian, 2010. "Export-led Growth: A Case Study of Mexico," MPRA Paper 95557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Abhijit Sharma & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2003. "An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Some Empirical Evidence (1971-2001)," Working Papers 2003004, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003.
    15. Anoma Abhayaratne, 1996. "Foreign trade and economic growth evidence from Sri Lanka, 1960-1992," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(9), pages 567-570.
    16. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2000. "Export performance and economic growth causality: An empirical analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(4), pages 412-426, December.
    17. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2005. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence From South Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(4), pages 472-488, December.
    18. Vera Vargas, Javier Alejandro & Kristjanpoller Rodríguez, Werner, 2016. "Causalidad de Granger entre composición de las exportaciones, crecimiento económico y producción de energía eléctrica: evidencia empírica para Latinoamérica," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 86, pages 25-62, December.
    19. van den Berg, Hendrik, 1997. "The relationship between international trade and economic growth in Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21.
    20. Mohammad Afzal, 2006. "Causality between exports, world income and economic growth in Pakistan," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 63-77.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:921-937. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Khurram Iqbal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pideipk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.