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An Analysis of Exports and Growth in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad A. Quddus

    (Punjab Economic Research Institute, Planning and Development Department, Government of the Punjab, Lahore.)

  • Ikram Saeed

    (Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), Islamabad.)

Abstract

The paper examines the export-led growth (ELG) paradigm for Pakistan, using data of the period from 1970-71 to 2003-04. The paper uses a number of analytical tools, including Unit Root Test, Phillips- Perron Tests, Co-integration Johansen Test, and the Granger Tests. The paper sets three hypotheses for testing the ELG paradigm for Pakistan; (a) whether GDP and exports are cointegrated, (b) whether exports Granger cause growth, and (c) whether exports Granger cause investment. The time series data on GDP growth, export growth and investment GDP ratio (proxy for capital formation), and the labour employed were used. The data were tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and Phillips-Perron test (1988), and then the relationship between GDP growth rate and the growth rate of other variables was determined using OLS with AR (1). The major finding of the present study is that growth rate of export, total investment, and labour employed have positively affected the GDP growth rate

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad A. Quddus & Ikram Saeed, 2005. "An Analysis of Exports and Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 921-937.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:921-937
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
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    4. Krueger, Anne O, 1990. "Asian Trade and Growth Lessons," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 108-112, May.
    5. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. repec:bla:devpol:v:23:y:2005:i:3:p:285-298 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Shivneil Kumar Raj & Priteshni Pratibha Chand, 2017. "Analysis of Fiji’s Export and Its Impact on Economic Growth," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 7(4), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Fatima Subhani & Atif Yaseen & Bashir Ahemd Khan & Anees Ayyub, 2017. "Productivity and Externality Effects of Exports: An Application of FEDER Model in Pakistan and India," Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 5(1), pages :36-60, June.
    3. Khalid Mahmood & Shehla Munir, 2018. "Agricultural exports and economic growth in Pakistan: an econometric reassessment," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1561-1574, July.
    4. Amir Azam, 2020. "The Impact of Industrial Policy on Export Diversification: Some Empirical Evidences from Pakistan," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 5(1), pages 84-96, March.
    5. Ambreen FATEMAH & Abdul QAYYUM, 2018. "Modeling the impact of exports on the economic growth of Pakistan," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 56-64, March.
    6. Shivneil Kumar Raj & Priteshni Pratibha Chand, 2017. "Analysis of Fiji’s Export and Its Impact on Economic Growth," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 7(4), pages 1-14, April.
    7. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    8. Ritu Rani & Naresh Kumar, 2018. "Is There an Export- or Import-led Growth in BRICS Countries? An Empirical Investigation," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 7(1), pages 13-23, June.

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