IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jqe/jqenew/v8y2010i1p130-147.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Afzal

    (Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad- Pakistan)

  • Ijaz Hussain

    (Department of Economics, FC University, Lahore)

Abstract

The relationship between economic growth, exports and imports in Pakistan from1990Q1 to 2008Q1 has been examined. Economic growth and exports are not cointegrated suggesting the absence of long-run relationship. Causality in Granger’s sense is absent between economic growth and exports as well as between imports and economic growth. Impulse response functions show that income, exports, and imports have negative impact on each other. Variance decomposition analysis demonstrates that imports appear to have a stronger impact on exports relative to income. The effect of exports on economic growth is modest. This paper finds no support for export-led growth hypothesis in Pakistan. Strong development of agriculture on modern scientific lines is suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Afzal & Ijaz Hussain, 2010. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 130-147, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:jqe:jqenew:v:8:y:2010:i:1:p:130-147
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.jqe.co.in/journals/JQE_v8_n1_2010_p9.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cline, William R., 1982. "Can the East Asian model of development be generalized?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 81-90, February.
    2. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    3. Chow, Peter C. Y., 1987. "Causality between export growth and industrial development : Empirial evidence from the NICs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-63, June.
    4. Moschos, Demetrios, 1989. "Export expansion, growth and the level of economic development: An empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 93-102, January.
    5. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    6. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    7. Adelman, Irma, 1984. "Beyond export-led growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(9), pages 937-949, September.
    8. Don Clark & David Walker, 1997. "Do Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Industrialize Faster?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 75-83.
    9. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    11. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 1978. "Anatomy of Exchange Control Regimes," NBER Chapters, in: Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes, pages 7-52, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Adelman, Irma, 1984. "Beyond export-led growth," CUDARE Working Paper Series 309, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
    13. Anne O. Krueger, 1978. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krue78-1, June.
    14. Heller, Peter S. & Porter, Richard C., 1978. "Exports and growth : An empirical re-investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 191-193, June.
    15. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1994. "A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 2, pages 9-45, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Ram, Rati, 1987. "Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Time-Series and Cross-Section Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 51-72, October.
    17. Enrico Colombatto, 1990. "An Analysis of Exports and Growth in LDCs," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 579-597, November.
    18. Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
    19. Alam, M Shahid, 1991. "Trade Orientation and Macroeconomic Performance in LDCs: An Empirical Study," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 839-848, July.
    20. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    21. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    22. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2005. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence From South Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(4), pages 472-488, December.
    23. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Exports and economic growth: The African case," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 831-835, June.
    24. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 1978. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bhag78-1, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yaya Keho, 2017. "The impact of trade openness on economic growth: The case of Cote d’Ivoire," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1332820-133, January.
    2. Alexander Maune, 2019. "Financial Inclusion and the Trade-Growth Nexus: Evidence from the Emerging Zimbabwean Economy," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(6), pages 43-55.
    3. Quaicoe, Alexander & Aboagye, Anthony Q.Q. & Bokpin, Godfred A., 2017. "Assessing the impact of export processing zones on economic growth in Ghana," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1150-1163.
    4. Ousama Ben-Salha & Abir Abid & Ghassen El Montasser, 2023. "Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages Between Exports and Growth in Next Eleven Economies," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 1194-1226, June.
    5. Ambreen FATEMAH & Abdul QAYYUM, 2018. "Modeling the impact of exports on the economic growth of Pakistan," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 56-64, March.
    6. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    7. Ammara Hussain & Ammar Oad & Munir Ahmad & Muhammad Irfan & Farhan Saqib, 2021. "Do Financial Development and Economic Openness Matter for Economic Progress in an Emerging Country? Seeking a Sustainable Development Path," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, May.
    8. Yaya Keho, 2018. "The Causal Nexus between Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence on the Role of Omitted Variables," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 335-344.
    9. Muhammad AFZAl, 2012. "Do Structural Transformation And Trade Liberalisation Cause Economic Growth In Pakistan?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1).
    10. Neena MALHOTRA & Deepika KUMARI, 2016. "Revisiting Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: An Empirical Study On South Asia," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(2), pages 157-168.
    11. Luis Quintana-Romero & Nam Kwon Mun & Roldán Andrés-Rosales & José Álvarez-García, 2020. "Trade Complementarity and the Balance of Payments Constraint Hypothesis: A New Free Trade Agreement between Mexico and South Korea," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-21, October.
    12. Muhammad Afzal & Sheikh Shoaib Ahmed & Muhammad Waseem Shahzad, 2019. "Impact of Merchandize and Services Trade on Economic Growth of Pakistan," Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, Economics and Finance, Michael Laurence, vol. 1(2), pages 30-36.
    13. Mohamad Ahmad Abou Hamia, 2024. "The integration of developing countries into world technology markets: cause or effect of total factor productivity?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 879-902, February.
    14. Jayanti Bhattacharjee & Sushil Kr. Haldar, 2015. "Economic Growth of Selected South Asian Countries: Does Institution Matter?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 356-370, February.
    15. Chakravarty, Sugato & Pylypiv, Mariya I., 2015. "The Role of Subsidization and Organizational Status on Microfinance Borrower Repayment Rates," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 737-748.
    16. Byoungki Kim & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Kenji Nozaki & Teerawat Charoenrat, 2022. "Does the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Hold for Myanmar?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 23(1), pages 48-60, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2005. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence From South Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(4), pages 472-488, December.
    2. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    3. Joshua J. Lewer & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2003. "How Large Is International Trade’s Effect on Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 363-396, July.
    4. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2004. "Exports and Economic Growth Nexus: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 563-581.
    5. Jong Park & Penelope Prime, 1997. "Export performance and growth in China: a cross-provincial analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(10), pages 1353-1363.
    6. AKBAR Mohammad & NAQVI Zareen Fatima, 2010. "Are Exports an Engine of Growth in Pakistan?," EcoMod2003 330700004, EcoMod.
    7. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    8. Onafowora, Olugbenga A. & Owoye, Oluwole, 1998. "Can Trade Liberalization Stimulate Economic Growth in Africa?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 497-506, March.
    9. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2013. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 39-60, August.
    10. Turan Subasat, 2003. "Does the Dollar Index Really Measure Outward Orientation?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 309-326.
    11. Winter-Nelson, Alex, 1995. "Natural resources, national income, and economic growth in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1507-1519, September.
    12. M.A.B. Siddique & E.A. Selvanathan, 1998. "Export Performance and Economic Development in Thailand," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 98-24, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    13. P. K. Mishra, 2011. "The Dynamics of Relationship between exports and economic growth in India," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 4(2), pages 53-70, August.
    14. Hotchkiss, Julie L. & Moore, Robert E. & Rockel, Mark, 1994. "Export expansion and growth at different stages of development," MPRA Paper 9320, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
    16. Saima Siddiqui & Sameena Zehra & Sadia Majeed & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2008. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: A Reinvestigation Using the Bounds Test," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 59-80, Jul-Dec.
    17. Pushpa Trivedi & Narayan Chandra Pradhan, 2010. "Exports and Growth Nexus in India: An Econometric Analysis," Millennial Asia, , vol. 1(1), pages 97-121, January.
    18. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2012:i:084 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Khalafalla, Khalid Yousif & Webb, Alan J., 2000. "Exports And Economic Growth Under Structural Change: A Co-Integration Analysis Of Evidence From Malaysia," Working Papers 14595, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    20. Fadzil, Atikah & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does export lead growth? evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 109290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Ahmed, Osama & Sallam, Walid, 2018. "Studying the volatility effect of agricultural exports on agriculture share of GDP: The case of Egypt," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 13(8), pages 345-352.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pakistan; exports; economic growth; cointegration; Granger causality; impulse response functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jqe:jqenew:v:8:y:2010:i:1:p:130-147. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: D. M. Nachane or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tiesoea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.