IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pid/journl/v36y1997i4p791-808.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Nasir M. Khilji

    (U.S. Bureau of the Census, and U.S./Saudi Arabian Joint Commission for Economic Cooperation, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.)

  • Akhtar Mahmood

    (Government of Pakistan.)

Abstract

This paper explores the impacts of defence expenditures on economic growth and other major economic variables in the Pakistan economy over the period 1972-1995. The results of Granger-causality tests show that there is bi-directional feedback between the defence burden and GDP growth. We test four different single equation models that are widely used in the defence literature. In these frameworks we generally find the defence burden to be negatively related to GDP growth. Finally, we specify a three-equation model which explains GDP growth, average propensity to save, and the defence ratio. In single equation estimations of the savings ratio and the defence burden, we uncover some interesting relationships. The savings ratio is affected positively by the defence ratio, and negatively by the inflation rate. The Pakistani defence burden is impacted negatively by the Indian defence burden and positively by the government budget. When all three equations are estimated as a system to account for feedback and covariance between these equations, these effects are diminished and go down in statistical significance.

Suggested Citation

  • Nasir M. Khilji & Akhtar Mahmood, 1997. "Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 791-808.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:36:y:1997:i:4:p:791-808
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1997/Volume4/791-808.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. LaCivita, Charles J. & Frederiksen, Peter C., 1991. "Defense spending and economic growth An alternative approach to the causality issue," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 117-126, January.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    3. Khilji, Nasir M. & Zampelli, Ernest M., 1994. "The fungibility of U.S. military and non-military assistance and the impacts on expenditures of major aid recipients," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 345-362, April.
    4. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    5. Ido Oren, 1994. "The Indo-Pakistani Arms Competition," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(2), pages 185-214, June.
    6. Grossman, Herschel I., 1995. "Insurrections," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 191-212, Elsevier.
    7. Faini, Riccardo & Annez, Patricia & Taylor, Lance, 1984. "Defense Spending, Economic Structure, and Growth: Evidence among Countries and Over Time," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(3), pages 487-498, April.
    8. Smith, R P, 1989. "Models of Military Expenditure," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(4), pages 345-359, Oct.-Dec..
    9. Stewart, Douglas B, 1991. "Economic Growth and the Defense Burden in Africa and Latin America: Simulations from a Dynamic Model," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 189-207, October.
    10. Nelson, Michael A & Singh, Ram D, 1994. "The Deficit-Growth Connection: Some Recent Evidence from Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(1), pages 167-191, October.
    11. Smith, R P, 1977. "Military Expenditure and Capitalism," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 1(1), pages 61-76, March.
    12. Lim, David, 1983. "Another Look at Growth and Defense in Less Developed Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(2), pages 377-384, January.
    13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chung-Nang Lai & Bwo-Nung Huang & Chin-Wei Yang, 2005. "Defense spending and economic growth across the Taiwan straits: a threshold regression model," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 45-57.
    2. Habibullah, M.S. & Law, Siong-Hook & Dayang-Afizzah, A.M., 2008. "Defense spending and economic growth in Asian economies: A panel error-correction approach," MPRA Paper 12105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Albert J.F. Yang & William N. Trumbull & Chin Wei Yang & Bwo‐Nung Huang, 2011. "On The Relationship Between Military Expenditure, Threat, And Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 449-457, April.
    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Leitão, Nuno Carlos & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2013. "Should Portuguese economy invest in defense spending? A revisit," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 805-815.
    5. Abdul Jalil & Hafiz Khuram Nadeem Abbasi & Nazia Bibi, 2016. "Military expenditures and economic growth: allowing structural breaks in time series analysis in the case of India and Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1487-1505, July.
    6. Ali, Wajid & Ahmad, Iftikhar & Rafiq, Sara, 2020. "Regime Switches in Pakistan’s Fiscal Policy: Markov-Switching VAR Approach," Asian Journal of Applied Economics/ Applied Economics Journal, Kasetsart University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Applied Economic Research, vol. 27(2), pages 45-76, December.
    7. Luqman, Muhammad & Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2021. "Guns better than butter in Pakistan? The dilemma of military expenditure, human development, and economic growth," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    8. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 71037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Shahrukh Khan, 2013. "The military and economic development in Pakistan," Chapters, in: Jeannette Wicks-Lim & Robert Pollin (ed.), Capitalism on Trial, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Syed Fazal Rehman, 2020. "Exploring The Long Run Effects And Relationship Of Military Expenditures And Economic Growth In The Scenario Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(3), pages 106-112, September.
    11. Muhammad Shahbaz & Talat Afza & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2013. "Does Defence Spending Impede Economic Growth? Cointegration And Causality Analysis For Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 105-120, April.
    12. Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "Does Defence Spending Stimulate Economic Growth in India?," MPRA Paper 30880, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Apr 2011.
    13. Waqar Qureshi & Noor Pio Khan, 2017. "Revisiting the Relationship between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Pakistan," Global Social Sciences Review, Humanity Only, vol. 2(1), pages 18-46, June.
    14. Zafar Iqbal & Ghulam Mustafa Zahid, 1998. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 125-148.
    15. repec:agr:journl:v:4(621):y:2019:i:4(621):p:181-200 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ali, Wajid & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Testing Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis for Pakistan: The Role of Aggregate and Disaggregate Expenditure," MPRA Paper 74570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Shahid Ali & Naved Ahmad, 2010. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidences Based on Time Series Data from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 497-512.
    19. Kashif MUNIR & Wajid ALI, 2019. "Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Role of aggregate and disaggregate expenditure in Pakistan," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(621), W), pages 181-200, Winter.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the European Union," Working Papers 2015.06, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    2. Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Abu-Qarn, Aamer S., 2003. "Government expenditures, military spending and economic growth: causality evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 567-583, September.
    3. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, Victoria, 2002. "Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policies on Long-Run Growth," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-028/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 23 Apr 2003.
    4. Muhammad Shahbaz & Talat Afza & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2013. "Does Defence Spending Impede Economic Growth? Cointegration And Causality Analysis For Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 105-120, April.
    5. Nijkamp, Peter & Poot, Jacques, 2004. "Meta-analysis of the effect of fiscal policies on long-run growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-124, March.
    6. S. Brock Blomberg, 1992. "Growth, political instability, and the defense burden," International Finance Discussion Papers 436, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Poot, Jacques, 1999. "A meta-analytic study of the role of government in long-run economic growth," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa171, European Regional Science Association.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Leitão, Nuno Carlos & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2013. "Should Portuguese economy invest in defense spending? A revisit," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 805-815.
    10. Innocent.U. Duru & Millicent Adanne Eze & Bartholomew.O.N. Okafor & Abubakar Yusuf & Lawrence.O. Ede & Abubakar Sadiq Saleh, 2021. "Military Outlay and Economic Growth: The Scenarios of Lake Chad Basin Countries of the Republic of Chad and Nigeria," Growth, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 8(1), pages 12-26.
    11. repec:bgu:wpaper:163 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Mona Rabea Abd Elfattah Elsayed, 2024. "Guns versus Growth: Assessing the Validity of the Benoit Hypothesis on the Egyptian Economy," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(5), pages 71-80, September.
    13. Ali Hamid E., 2011. "Military Expenditures and Human Development: Guns and Butter Arguments Revisited: A Case Study from Egypt," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-21, September.
    14. Dimitrios PAPARAS & Christian RICHTER & Alexandros PAPARAS, 2016. "Military Spending and Economic Growth in Greece and the Arms Race between Greece and Turkey," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 38-56, March.
    15. W. Robert Reed & Nurul Sidek, 2013. "A Replication of "Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Policies on Long-Run Growth" (European Journal of Political Economy, 2004)," Working Papers in Economics 13/33, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    16. Iamsiraroj, Sasi, 2016. "The foreign direct investment–economic growth nexus," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 116-133.
    17. Albert J.F. Yang & William N. Trumbull & Chin Wei Yang & Bwo‐Nung Huang, 2011. "On The Relationship Between Military Expenditure, Threat, And Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 449-457, April.
    18. Kostakis, Ioannis & Lolos, Sarantis & Doulgeraki, Charikleia, 2020. "Cultural Heritage led Growth: Regional evidence from Greece (1998-2016)," MPRA Paper 98443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. R Burger & S du Plessis, 2011. "Examining the Robustness of Competing Explanations of Slow Growth in African Countries," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 21-47, December.
    20. Garrison, Charles B. & Lee, Feng-Yao, 1995. "The effect of macroeconomic variables on economic growth rates: A cross-country study," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-317.
    21. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2008. "Empirics of Growth and Development," Chapters, in: Amitava Krishna Dutt & Jaime Ros (ed.), International Handbook of Development Economics, Volumes 1 & 2, volume 0, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    22. David Gould & Roy Ruffin, 1995. "Human capital, trade, and economic growth," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(3), pages 425-445, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:36:y:1997:i:4:p:791-808. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Khurram Iqbal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pideipk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.