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Exchange Rate Determination in Pakistan: A Simultaneous Equation Model

Author

Listed:
  • Rehana Siddiqui

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Usman Afridi

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Zafar Mahmood

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

In recent years the gap between real exchange rate (RER) and nominal exchange rate (NER) has widened in Pakistan. A proper understanding of the determinants of real exchange rate can be extremely useful for the management of current account deficit. The results of this study show that the Simultaneous Equation Model gives better results than the Single Equation Model. The estimated coefficients reveal that changes in both monetary and real sector variables affect the equilibrium path of RER. The distinction between traded and non-traded goods can also help in proper real exchange rate management.

Suggested Citation

  • Rehana Siddiqui & Usman Afridi & Zafar Mahmood, 1996. "Exchange Rate Determination in Pakistan: A Simultaneous Equation Model," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 683-692.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:683-692
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    2. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Asymptotic Normality, When Regressors Have a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1397-1417, November.
    3. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    4. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 213-234..
    2. Waheed, Muhammad, 2009. "Impact of real and nominal factors on long run equilibrium in Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 33169, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2010.
    3. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Saima Nawaz, 2018. "Does Pak-Rupee Exchange Rate Respond to Monetary Fundamentals? A Structural Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 175-202.
    4. Razzaque H. Bhatti, 1997. "Do Expectations Play Any Role in Determining Pak Rupee Exchange Rates?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 263-273.
    5. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan, 2019. "Cointegration between macroeconomic factors and the exchange rate USD/CNY," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Zainab Jehan & Iffat Irshad, 2020. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth inPakistan: The Role of Financial Development," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 81-99.
    7. Eatzaz Ahmad & Saima Ahmed Ali, 1999. "Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 235-251.
    8. Syed Ali Raza & Sahar Afshan, 2017. "Determinants of Exchange Rate in Pakistan: Revisited with Structural Break Testing," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(4), pages 825-848, August.

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