IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/phs/prejrn/v50y2013i1p45-56.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are there rational speculative bubbles in the Philippine stock market?

Author

Listed:
  • Gilbert Nartea

    (Lincoln University, Canterbury, New Zealand)

  • Bo Hu

    (Lincoln University, Canterbury, New Zealand)

  • Baiding Hu

    (Lincoln University, Canterbury, New Zealand)

Abstract

ASEAN stock markets have experienced episodes of long price run-ups followed by large drops over the past 20 years. These apparent bouts of boom and bust have prompted the popular press to conjecture the presence of speculative asset bubbles in these markets causing stock prices to deviate from fundamental values. We use descriptive statistics and McQueen and ThorleyÕs [1994] duration dependence test to examine the presence of rational speculative bubblesÑa special case of speculative bubblesÑin the Philippine stock market over the period from 1991 to 2009. We do not detect the presence of rational speculative bubbles in the Philippines using both monthly and weekly returns. This implies that the long run-ups in prices and the subsequent drops over the sample period could have been justified by fundamental value changes. However, it is also possible that there were bubbles caused by irrational investor behavior. We suggest that further research in this area is warranted. Classification-G14

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert Nartea & Bo Hu & Baiding Hu, 2013. "Are there rational speculative bubbles in the Philippine stock market?," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 50(1), pages 45-56, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:50:y:2013:i:1:p:45-56
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/890/790
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    2. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kausik Chaudhuri & Alok Kumar, 2015. "A Markov-Switching Model for Indian Stock Price and Volume," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(3), pages 239-257, December.
    2. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Time‐Varying Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market: New Evidence on its Persistence and on Currency Spillovers," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5‐6), pages 759-793, June.
    3. K. Lebedeva, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of the Russian Financial Markets’ Liquidity and Returns," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 3(3), pages 5-31.
    4. Gilbert V. Nartea & Muhammad A. Cheema & Kenneth R. Szulczyk, 2017. "Searching for rational bubble footprints in the Singaporean and Indonesian stock markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(3), pages 529-552, July.
    5. Ranaldo, Angelo & de Magistris, Paolo Santucci, 2022. "Liquidity in the global currency market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 859-883.
    6. Patricio Jaramillo & Jorge Selaive, 2006. "Speculative Activity and Copper Price," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 384, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Geoffrey M. Ngene & Parker Benefield & Allen K. Lynch, 2018. "Asymmetric and nonlinear dynamics in sovereign credit risk markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 563-585, May.
    8. Czujack, Corinna & Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Ginsburgh, Victor, 1995. "On long-run price comovements between paintings and prints," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 269, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    9. Lisbeth Funding la Cour, 1995. "A Component® based Analysis of the danish Long-run Money Demand Relation," Discussion Papers 95-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    10. Muhammad Shahbaz & Vassilios G. Papavassiliou & Amine Lahiani & David Roubaud, 2023. "Are we moving towards decarbonisation of the global economy? Lessons from the distant past to the present," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2620-2634, July.
    11. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    12. Ely, David & Salehizadeh, Mehdi, 2001. "American depositary receipts: An analysis of international stock price movements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 343-363.
    13. Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
    14. Abbas Alavirad & Sanhita Athawale, 2005. "The impact of the budget deficit on inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(1), pages 37-49, March.
    15. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2008. "Do Permanent Shocks Explain Income Levels? A Common Cycle–Common Trend Analysis Of Regional Income Levels For China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 656-662, December.
    16. Liu, Yaping & Sadiq, Farah & Ali, Wajahat & Kumail, Tafazal, 2022. "Does tourism development, energy consumption, trade openness and economic growth matters for ecological footprint: Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve and pollution haven hypothesis for Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    17. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 389, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2014. "The great (De)leveraging in the GIIPS countries. Domestic credit and net foreign liabilities 1998–2013," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.
    19. Costola, Michele & Iacopini, Matteo, 2023. "Measuring sovereign bond fragmentation in the Eurozone," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    20. Jie, Yu & Rasool, Zeeshan & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A. & Mattayaphutron, Suchira & Murad, Muhammad, 2024. "Sustainable Central Asia: Impact of fintech, natural resources, renewable energy, and financial inclusion to combat environmental degradation and achieving sustainable development goals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:50:y:2013:i:1:p:45-56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RT Campos (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/seupdph.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.