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The Forecasting Capacity of Indicators Measuring Budget Sustainability

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  • Tóth G., Csaba

Abstract

Since the outbreak of the European debt crisis, fiscal sustainability as a research area became more and more popular. This paper aims to assess the predicting power of the basic types of the following five fiscal sustainability indicators: primary gap (1), stationary tests for public debt (2), stationary test for the first differential of public debt (3), public revenues and expenditures cointegration (4); fiscal reaction function (5). The results indicate that predictive power is rather low for all indicators except for the first one. One reason for this may be that these indicators ignore the factors outside the range of fiscal policy. After comparing our result with previous research studies, we conclude that the results of these tests are heavily influenced by the choice of parameters, samples and the econometric methods used. For these reasons, it appears reasonable to evaluate and compare the predictive power of all fiscal sustainability indicators. By utilising the lessons learned, certain procedures should be standardised on the one hand, where this is possible, and on the other, methodology should be developed further in order to increase effectiveness.

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  • Tóth G., Csaba, 2014. "The Forecasting Capacity of Indicators Measuring Budget Sustainability," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 59(4), pages 511-528.
    • Handle: RePEc:pfq:journl:v:59:y:2014:i:4:p:511-528
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    File URL: https://unipub.lib.uni-corvinus.hu/8863/
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    1. George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2011. "Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 192-214, July.
    2. Claeys, Peter, 2007. "Sustainability of EU Fiscal Policies: a Panel Test," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 112-127.
    3. Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2011. "Are we able to capture the EU debt crisis? Evidence from PIIGGS countries in panel unit root framework," MPRA Paper 30334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Miss Gabriela Dobrescu & Iva Petrova & Nazim Belhocine & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2011. "Assessing Fiscal Stress," IMF Working Papers 2011/100, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito & Gerrit B. Koester & Christiane Nickel, 2014. "Signalling fiscal stress in the euro area: A country-specific early warning system," Working Papers 1418, Banco de España.
    6. Silika Prohl & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2006. "Sustainability of Public Debt and Budget Deficit: Panel cointegration analysis for the European Union Member countries," Economics working papers 2006-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
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    Cited by:

    1. László Domokos & Gyula Pulay, 2020. "Sustainable Budget and the Sustainability Appearing in the Budget," Public Finance Quarterly, State Audit Office of Hungary, vol. 65(6), pages 25-56.
    2. Gergely Kicsák & Dávid Benkõ & Noémi Végh, 2020. "Interest Savings of the Hungarian Budget between 2013 and 2019 in Comparison with Other EU Countries," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(4), pages 5-26.
    3. Miklós Losoncz & Csaba G. Tóth, 2020. "Government Debt Reduction in the Old EU Member States: Is This Time Different?," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(2), pages 28-54.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; fiscal rules; sustainability indicators; primary gap; public debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H69 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Other

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