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Risk-Return Profiles of New Ventures: An Empirical Study

Author

Listed:
  • Robert H. Keeley

    (Stanford University)

  • Lassaad A. Turki

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

This study examines how risk evolves in private, venture capital backed companies. It finds that the stochastic Ito processes assumed for public companies probably apply to young, private companies as well. However, the parameters, drift rate and standard deviation, are generally higher. Venture capitalists have viewed companies as evolving through stages, and this study assesses the probabilities of success and failure at each stage. The underlying process of price evolution appears much smoother than the stage model may suggest. The valuation mediods developed for public securities, including option pricing, should apply to private companies as well. This study is a step toward measuring the needed parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert H. Keeley & Lassaad A. Turki, 1993. "Risk-Return Profiles of New Ventures: An Empirical Study," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 2(2), pages 87-109, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:pep:journl:v:2:y:1993:i:2:p:87-109
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chan, Yuk-Shee, 1983. "On the Positive Role of Financial Intermediation in Allocation of Venture Capital in a Market with Imperfect Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1543-1568, December.
    2. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    3. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    4. Ruhnka, John C. & Young, John E., 1987. "A venture capital model of the development process for new ventures," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 167-184.
    5. Blume, Marshall E, 1971. "On the Assessment of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-10, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert H. Keeley & Sanjeev Punjabi & Lassaad Turki, 1996. "Valuation of Early-Stage Ventures: Option Valuation Models vs. Traditional Approaches," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 5(2), pages 115-138, Summer.
    2. James D. Campbell, 2019. "Investment in ideas when genius and madness look alike," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 947-953.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk-Return; New Venture; Startup;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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