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What do we know about poverty in North Korea?

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    (International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
    Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU)
    Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OEAW, WU)
    Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))

  • Olha Danylo

    (International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA))

  • Steffen Fritz

    (International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA))

  • Martin Hofer

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU)
    World Data Lab)

  • Homi Kharas

    (World Data Lab
    The Brookings Institution)

  • Juan Carlos Laso Bayas

    (International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
    World Data Lab)

Abstract

Reliable quantitative information on the North Korean economy is extremely scarce. In particular, reliable income per capita and poverty figures for the country are not available. In this contribution, we provide for the first time estimates of absolute poverty rates in North Korean subnational regions based on the combination of innovative remote-sensed night-time light intensity data (monthly information for built areas) with estimated income distributions. Our results, which are robust to the use of different methods to approximate the income distribution in the country, indicate that the share of persons living in extreme poverty in North Korea may be larger than previously thought. We estimate a poverty rate for the country of around 60% in 2018 and a high volatility in the dynamics of income at the national level in North Korea for the period 2012–2018. Income per capita estimates tend to decline significantly from 2012 to 2015 and present a recovery since 2016. The subnational estimates of income and poverty reveal a change in relative dynamics since the second half of the 2012–2018 period. The first part of the period is dominated by divergent dynamics in income across regions, while the second half reveals convergence in regional income.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Olha Danylo & Steffen Fritz & Martin Hofer & Homi Kharas & Juan Carlos Laso Bayas, 2020. "What do we know about poverty in North Korea?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:6:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-020-0417-4
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-020-0417-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Warwick J. McKibbin & Jong Wha Lee & Weifeng Liu & Cheol Jong Song, 2018. "Modeling the Economic Impacts of Korean Unification," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 227-256, September.
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    4. Jinpei Ou & Xiaoping Liu & Xia Li & Meifang Li & Wenkai Li, 2015. "Evaluation of NPP-VIIRS Nighttime Light Data for Mapping Global Fossil Fuel Combustion CO2 Emissions: A Comparison with DMSP-OLS Nighttime Light Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Fengler & Homi Kharas & Karim Bekhtiar & Michael Brottrager & Martin Hofer, 2018. "Will the Sustainable Development Goals be fulfilled? Assessing present and future global poverty," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
    6. Jeremy Proville & Daniel Zavala-Araiza & Gernot Wagner, 2017. "Night-time lights: A global, long term look at links to socio-economic trends," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-12, March.
    7. Martin Ravallion, 2012. "Why Don't We See Poverty Convergence?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 504-523, February.
    8. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Kim, Suk Jin & Lee, Keun, 2007. "Assessing the economic performance of North Korea, 1954-1989: Estimates and growth accounting analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 564-582, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simone Cecchini & Giovanni Savio & Varinia Tromben, 2022. "Mapping poverty rates in Chile with night lights and fractional multinomial models," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 850-876, August.
    2. Jeet Agnihotri & Subhankar Mishra, 2021. "Indian Economy and Nighttime Lights," Papers 2103.03179, arXiv.org.
    3. Syed Abul, Basher & Jobaida, Behtarin & Salim, Rashid, 2022. "Convergence across Subnational Regions of Bangladesh – What the Night Lights Data Say?," MPRA Paper 111963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Thornton, Philip & Dijkman, Jeroen & Herrero, Mario & Szilagyi, Lili & Cramer, Laura, 2022. "Viewpoint: Aligning vision and reality in publicly funded agricultural research for development: A case study of CGIAR," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    5. Ian McCallum & Christopher Conrad Maximillian Kyba & Juan Carlos Laso Bayas & Elena Moltchanova & Matt Cooper & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Shonali Pachauri & Linda See & Olga Danylo & Inian Moorthy & Myr, 2022. "Estimating global economic well-being with unlit settlements," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.

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