IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/jorsoc/v62y2011i11d10.1057_jors.2010.149.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A portfolio approach to managing procurement risk using multi-stage stochastic programming

Author

Listed:
  • Y Shi

    (South China University of Technology
    The University of Hong Kong)

  • F Wu

    (Xi'an Jiaotong University)

  • L K Chu

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • D Sculli

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • Y H Xu

    (The University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

Procurement is a critical supply chain management function that is susceptible to risk, due mainly to uncertain customer demand and purchase price volatility. A procurement approach in the form of a portfolio that incorporates the common procurement means is proposed. Such means include long-term contracts, spot procurements and option-based supply contracts. The objective is to explore possible synergies among the various procurement means, and so be able to produce optimal or near optimal results in profit while mitigating risk. The implementation of the portfolio approach is based on a multi-stage stochastic programming model in which replenishment decisions are made at various stages along a time horizon, with replenishment quantities being determined by simultaneously considering the stochastic demand and the price volatility of the spot market. The model attempts to minimise the risk exposure of procurement decisions measured as conditional value-at-risk. Numerical experiments to test the effectiveness of the proposed model are performed using demand data from a large air conditioner manufacturer in China and price volatility data from the Shanghai steel market. The results indicate that the proposed model can fairly reliably outperform other approaches, especially when either the demand and/or prices exhibit significant variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Y Shi & F Wu & L K Chu & D Sculli & Y H Xu, 2011. "A portfolio approach to managing procurement risk using multi-stage stochastic programming," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(11), pages 1958-1970, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:62:y:2011:i:11:d:10.1057_jors.2010.149
    DOI: 10.1057/jors.2010.149
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/jors.2010.149
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/jors.2010.149?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xavier Brusset, 2005. "Comparison between minimum purchase, quantity flexibility contracts and spot procurement in a supply chain," Econometrics 0512007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ç Haksöz & S Seshadri, 2007. "Supply chain operations in the presence of a spot market: a review with discussion," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(11), pages 1412-1429, November.
    3. Dawn Barnes-Schuster & Yehuda Bassok & Ravi Anupindi, 2002. "Coordination and Flexibility in Supply Contracts with Options," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 4(3), pages 171-207, May.
    4. Serel, Dogan A. & Dada, Maqbool & Moskowitz, Herbert, 2001. "Sourcing decisions with capacity reservation contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 635-648, June.
    5. Azaron, A. & Brown, K.N. & Tarim, S.A. & Modarres, M., 2008. "A multi-objective stochastic programming approach for supply chain design considering risk," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 129-138, November.
    6. Louis Eeckhoudt & Christian Gollier & Harris Schlesinger, 1995. "The Risk-Averse (and Prudent) Newsboy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(5), pages 786-794, May.
    7. Wang, Qunzhi & Tsao, De-bi, 2006. "Supply contract with bidirectional options: The buyer's perspective," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 30-52, May.
    8. Jitka Dupačová & Giorgio Consigli & Stein Wallace, 2000. "Scenarios for Multistage Stochastic Programs," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 100(1), pages 25-53, December.
    9. Xin Chen & Melvyn Sim & David Simchi-Levi & Peng Sun, 2007. "Risk Aversion in Inventory Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 828-842, October.
    10. Goldberg, Victor P & Erickson, John R, 1987. "Quantity and Price Adjustment in Long-term Contracts: A Case Study of Petroleum Coke," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(2), pages 369-398, October.
    11. Paul R. Kleindorfer & D. J. Wu, 2003. "Integrating Long- and Short-Term Contracting via Business-to-Business Exchanges for Capital-Intensive Industries," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(11), pages 1597-1615, November.
    12. Wong, Kit Pong, 2002. "Production decisions in the presence of options: A note," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 17-25, April.
    13. A. A. Tsay & W. S. Lovejoy, 1999. "Quantity Flexibility Contracts and Supply Chain Performance," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 1(2), pages 89-111.
    14. Woo, Chi-Keung & Horowitz, Ira & Olson, Arne & Horii, Brian & Baskette, Carmen, 2006. "Efficient frontiers for electricity procurement by an LDC with multiple purchase options," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 70-80, January.
    15. B Tan, 2002. "Managing manufacturing risks by using capacity options," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 53(2), pages 232-242, February.
    16. Kjetil Høyland & Stein W. Wallace, 2001. "Generating Scenario Trees for Multistage Decision Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 295-307, February.
    17. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    18. Charles J. Corbett & Xavier de Groote, 2000. "A Supplier's Optimal Quantity Discount Policy Under Asymmetric Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 444-450, March.
    19. Christian van Delft & Jean-Philippe Vial, 2004. "A practical implementation of stochastic programming: an application to the evaluation of option contracts in supply chains," Post-Print hal-00471409, HAL.
    20. Gérard P. Cachon & Martin A. Lariviere, 2005. "Supply Chain Coordination with Revenue-Sharing Contracts: Strengths and Limitations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(1), pages 30-44, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Xinsheng & Ji, Ping & Chan, Felix T.S., 2022. "On maximizing a loss-averse buyer’s expected utility in a multi-sourcing problem," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 388-404.
    2. Silva, Rodolfo Rodrigues Barrionuevo & Martins, André Christóvão Pio & Soler, Edilaine Martins & Baptista, Edméa Cássia & Balbo, Antonio Roberto & Nepomuceno, Leonardo, 2022. "Two-stage stochastic energy procurement model for a large consumer in hydrothermal systems," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    3. Huo, Baofeng & Gu, Minhao & Jiang, Bin, 2018. "China-related POM research: Literature review and suggestions for future research," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 134-153.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Yulan & Zipkin, Paul, 2009. "Agents' incentives under buy-back contracts in a two-stage supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 525-539, August.
    2. Biswas, Indranil & Avittathur, Balram, 2019. "Channel coordination using options contract under simultaneous price and inventory competition," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 45-60.
    3. Inderfurth, Karl & Kelle, Peter & Kleber, Rainer, 2013. "Dual sourcing using capacity reservation and spot market: Optimal procurement policy and heuristic parameter determination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 298-309.
    4. Lijo John & Anand Gurumurthy, 2022. "Are quantity flexibility contracts with discounts in the presence of spot market procurement relevant for the humanitarian supply chain? An exploration," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 315(2), pages 1775-1802, August.
    5. Chaolin Yang & Zhenyu Hu & Sean X. Zhou, 2021. "Multilocation Newsvendor Problem: Centralization and Inventory Pooling," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 185-200, January.
    6. Xing, Wei & Wang, Shouyang & Liu, Liming, 2012. "Optimal ordering and pricing strategies in the presence of a B2B spot market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 87-98.
    7. Onur Kaya & Serra Caner, 2018. "Supply chain contracts for capacity decisions under symmetric and asymmetric information," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(1), pages 67-92, March.
    8. Feng, Yi & Mu, Yinping & Hu, Benyong & Kumar, Arun, 2014. "Commodity options purchasing and credit financing under capital constraint," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 230-237.
    9. Wu, Meng & Zhu, Stuart X. & Teunter, Ruud H., 2013. "Newsvendor problem with random shortage cost under a risk criterion," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 790-798.
    10. Youhua (Frank) Chen & Minghui Xu & Zhe George Zhang, 2009. "Technical Note---A Risk-Averse Newsvendor Model Under the CVaR Criterion," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(4), pages 1040-1044, August.
    11. Shen, Houcai & Pang, Zhan & Cheng, T.C.E., 2011. "The component procurement problem for the loss-averse manufacturer with spot purchase," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 146-153, July.
    12. Cheaitou, Ali & Cheaytou, Rima, 2019. "A two-stage capacity reservation supply contract with risky supplier and forecast updating," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 42-60.
    13. Cai, Wenbo & Abdel-Malek, Layek & Hoseini, Babak & Rajaei Dehkordi, Sharareh, 2015. "Impact of flexible contracts on the performance of both retailer and supplier," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(PB), pages 429-444.
    14. Xing, Wei & Liu, Liming & Wang, Shouyang, 2014. "More than a second channel? Supply chain strategies in B2B spot markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(3), pages 699-710.
    15. Bellantuono, Nicola & Giannoccaro, Ilaria & Pontrandolfo, Pierpaolo & Tang, Christopher S., 2009. "The implications of joint adoption of revenue sharing and advance booking discount programs," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 383-394, October.
    16. Erica L. Plambeck & Terry A. Taylor, 2007. "Implications of Renegotiation for Optimal Contract Flexibility and Investment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(12), pages 1872-1886, December.
    17. Bicer, Isik & Hagspiel, Verena, 2016. "Valuing quantity flexibility under supply chain disintermediation risk," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 1-15.
    18. Ding, Ding & Chen, Jian, 2008. "Coordinating a three level supply chain with flexible return policies," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 865-876, October.
    19. Karl Inderfurth & Peter Kelle & Rainer Kleber, 2011. "Dual Sourcing Using Capacity Reservation and Spot Market: Optimal Procurement Policy and Heuristic Parameter Determination," FEMM Working Papers 110014, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    20. Mobini, Zahra & van den Heuvel, Wilco & Wagelmans, Albert, 2019. "Designing multi-period supply contracts in a two-echelon supply chain with asymmetric information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 542-560.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:62:y:2011:i:11:d:10.1057_jors.2010.149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.