IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/jorsoc/v61y2010i8d10.1057_jors.2009.96.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rational inference: deductive, inductive and probabilistic thinking

Author

Listed:
  • R J Ormerod

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

The paper reviews three modes of rational inference: deductive, inductive and probabilistic. Many examples of each can be found in scientific endeavour, professional practice and public discourse. However, while the strengths and weaknesses of deductive and inductive inference are well established, the implications of the emerging probabilistic orientation are still being worked through. The paper discusses some of the recent findings in psychology and philosophy, and speculates about the implications for scientific and professional practice in general and OR in particular. It is suggested that the probabilistic orientation and Bayesian approach can provide an epistemological lens through which to view the claims of different approaches to inference. Some suggestions for further research are made.

Suggested Citation

  • R J Ormerod, 2010. "Rational inference: deductive, inductive and probabilistic thinking," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(8), pages 1207-1223, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:61:y:2010:i:8:d:10.1057_jors.2009.96
    DOI: 10.1057/jors.2009.96
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/jors.2009.96
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/jors.2009.96?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R J Ormerod, 2002. "On the nature of OR: taking stock," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 53(5), pages 475-491, May.
    2. R Rajagopal & E del Castillo, 2007. "A Bayesian approach for multiple criteria decision making with applications in Design for Six Sigma," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(6), pages 779-790, June.
    3. T-M Choi & D Li & H Yan, 2003. "Optimal two-stage ordering policy with Bayesian information updating," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 846-859, August.
    4. R J Ormerod, 2009. "The history and ideas of critical rationalism: the philosophy of Karl Popper and its implications for OR," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(4), pages 441-460, April.
    5. E Stavrulaki & D K H Fong & D K J Lin, 2003. "Two-resource stochastic capacity planning employing a Bayesian methodology," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(11), pages 1198-1208, November.
    6. I Munro & J Mingers, 2004. "Response to Richard Ormerod," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(1), pages 90-93, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard John Ormerod, 2021. "Pragmatism in professional practice," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(6), pages 797-816, November.
    2. Wei-Lun Chang & Yi-Pei Chen, 2019. "Way too sentimental? a credible model for online reviews," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 453-468, April.
    3. Inès, Gicquel & Herbert, Castéran, 2016. "Linking usage and shopping: How value experiences can distinguish consumers," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 165-174.
    4. van Antwerpen, Coen & Curtis, Neville J., 2016. "A data collection and presentation methodology for decision support: A case study of hand-held mine detection devices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(1), pages 237-251.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ormerod, R.J., 2014. "Critical rationalism in practice: Strategies to manage subjectivity in OR investigations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 784-797.
    2. Maurice W. Kirby, 2007. "Paradigm Change in Operations Research: Thirty Years of Debate," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(1), pages 1-13, February.
    3. Ormerod, Richard J. & Ulrich, Werner, 2013. "Operational research and ethics: A literature review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 291-307.
    4. Zhou, Yong-Wu & Wang, Sheng-Dong, 2009. "Manufacturer-buyer coordination for newsvendor-type-products with two ordering opportunities and partial backorders," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(3), pages 958-974, November.
    5. Richard J. Ormerod, 2016. "Critical Rationalism for Practice and its Relationship to Critical Systems Thinking," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 4-23, January.
    6. Choi, Tsan-Ming & Chen, Yue & Chung, Sai Ho, 2019. "Online-offline fashion franchising supply chains without channel conflicts: Choices on postponement and contracts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 174-184.
    7. Jinxian Quan & Sung-Won Cho, 2021. "Optimal Ordering Policy for Retailers with Bayesian Information Updating in a Presale System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
    8. Choi, Tsan-Ming, 2007. "Pre-season stocking and pricing decisions for fashion retailers with multiple information updating," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 146-170, March.
    9. Ian G. McHale & Philip A. Scarf & David E. Folker, 2012. "On the Development of a Soccer Player Performance Rating System for the English Premier League," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 42(4), pages 339-351, August.
    10. Abu Hashan Md Mashud & Hui-Ming Wee & Chiao-Ven Huang & Jei-Zheng Wu, 2020. "Optimal Replenishment Policy for Deteriorating Products in a Newsboy Problem with Multiple Just-in-Time Deliveries," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-18, November.
    11. R J Ormerod, 2010. "Research contribution: Citation and content analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(4), pages 705-707, April.
    12. Weihua Liu & Donglei Zhu & Yijia Wang, 2017. "Capacity Procurement in Logistics Service Supply Chain with Demand Updating and Rational Expectation Behavior," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(06), pages 1-48, December.
    13. Bellenbaum, Julia & Höckner, Jonas & Weber, Christoph, 2022. "Designing flexibility procurement markets for congestion management – investigating two-stage procurement auctions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    14. Cheaitou, Ali & Cheaytou, Rima, 2019. "A two-stage capacity reservation supply contract with risky supplier and forecast updating," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 42-60.
    15. Au, Kin-Fan & Choi, Tsan-Ming & Yu, Yong, 2008. "Fashion retail forecasting by evolutionary neural networks," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 615-630, August.
    16. Li, Jianbin & Cheng, Wei & Song, Xiangrong & Zheng, Yuting, 2023. "The value of buyer financing with a minimum quantity commitment in pull supply chains," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    17. Marisol Valencia Cárdenas & Juan Gabriel Vanegas López & Juan Carlos Correa Morales & Jorge Aníbal Restrepo Morales, 2017. "Comparing forecasts for tourism dynamics in Medellín, Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 86, pages 199-230, Enero - J.
    18. Chen, Haoya & Chen, Youhua (Frank) & Chiu, Chun-Hung & Choi, Tsan-Ming & Sethi, Suresh, 2010. "Coordination mechanism for the supply chain with leadtime consideration and price-dependent demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 70-80, May.
    19. Brocklesby, John, 2009. "Ethics beyond the model: How social dynamics can interfere with ethical practice in operational research/management science," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1073-1082, December.
    20. Maxwell Olokundun & Mercy Ejovwokeoghene Ogbari & Hezekiah Falola & Ayodotun Stephen Ibidunni, 2022. "Leveraging 5G network for digital innovation in small and medium enterprises: a conceptual review," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:61:y:2010:i:8:d:10.1057_jors.2009.96. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.