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Modelling and assessing local area differences in road casualties: a case study in England

Author

Listed:
  • G A Hindle

    (University of Warwick)

  • T Hindle

    (HCS Ltd)

  • S Souli

    (Lancaster University)

Abstract

The context of this research is the governmental targeting of road casualty reductions in England. Local authorities have a major role to play in achieving such targets and this research explores the relationships between road casualties and local authority characteristics such as population, road networks, traffic, and geography. Regression models are identified for types of road casualty to provide local area expectations against which observed numbers can be compared. A number of issues are identified that raise concerns about the current methods adopted for assessing road safety performances and about the implementation of this approach at local levels. These issues include the large impact on assessments of judgements of casualty severity and of estimates of starting point casualties when estimating reductions over time. This study leads to recommendations for ways in which current approaches to road casualty appraisal might be improved.

Suggested Citation

  • G A Hindle & T Hindle & S Souli, 2009. "Modelling and assessing local area differences in road casualties: a case study in England," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(6), pages 781-788, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:60:y:2009:i:6:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602623
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602623
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    Cited by:

    1. F O'Brien, 2011. "Supporting the strategy process: a survey of UK OR/MS practitioners," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(5), pages 900-920, May.
    2. Beecham, Roger & Lovelace, Robin, 2022. "A framework for inserting visually-supported inferences into geographical analysis workflow: application to road safety research," OSF Preprints mfja8, Center for Open Science.

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