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On the development of decision rules for bar quiz handicapping

Author

Listed:
  • D F Percy

    (University of Salford)

  • P A Scarf

    (University of Salford)

Abstract

Some competitions involve teams comprising different numbers of players. For informal games, such as the popular ‘pub quiz’, we argue that teams with fewer players are at a disadvantage. This paper investigates the properties of these games and develops several methods for allocating handicaps within such competitions, so that the competitions may be considered fair, based on a simple Bernoulli model for correctly answering questions and assuming exchangeability of participants. We recommend a natural conjugate prior subjective handicapping rule; with this rule handicaps may be set beforehand given the judgement of the quiz setter regarding the difficulty of the questions. We also describe a posterior rule that provides improved accuracy but is calculated after the quiz is complete. Finally, the paper considers modifications of the proposed rules to cope with multiple-choice questions and progressive quizzes.

Suggested Citation

  • D F Percy & P A Scarf, 2008. "On the development of decision rules for bar quiz handicapping," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(10), pages 1406-1414, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:59:y:2008:i:10:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602487
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602487
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davis, James H., 1992. "Some compelling intuitions about group consensus decisions, theoretical and empirical research, and interpersonal aggregation phenomena: Selected examples 1950-1990," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-38, June.
    2. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 1, pages 1-78, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Ruth N. Bolton & Randall G. Chapman, 2008. "Searching For Positive Returns At The Track: A Multinomial Logit Model For Handicapping Horse Races," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Donald B Hausch & Victor SY Lo & William T Ziemba (ed.), Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets, chapter 17, pages 151-171, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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