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Dynamic visioning for dynamic environments

Author

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  • G Winch

    (University of Plymouth Business School)

Abstract

This article considers the particular challenges to organisations facing major change in turbulent times. It briefly reviews the use of visioning tools, especially scenario planning, to support the process of developing strategies requiring major change, and the communication of these plans to key employees. However, it deduces that written scenarios may not adequately portray the dynamic nature of the change, nor provide managers with a vivid enough picture of the post-change environment. System dynamics has been identified as a powerful tool for bringing such a dynamic view, and case examples are offered which use both the diagramming techniques in a qualitative manner and quantitative models to simulate the possible futures. Such simulators enable managers to pre-experience the changed environment, preparing them better to face the transients of the change implementation and the challenges of managing the post-change situation. Future developments and uses of system dynamics in ‘computer-aided visioning’ are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • G Winch, 1999. "Dynamic visioning for dynamic environments," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(4), pages 354-361, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:50:y:1999:i:4:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2600648
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2600648
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mahdi Bastan & Hamed Shakouri Ganjavi & Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, 0. "Educational demographics: a system dynamics model for human resource management," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 0, pages 1-15.
    2. K Hafeez & H Abdelmeguid, 2003. "Dynamics of human resource and knowledge management," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(2), pages 153-164, February.
    3. Y Xing & B Dangerfield, 2011. "Modelling the sustainability of mass tourism in island tourist economies," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(9), pages 1742-1752, September.
    4. Mahdi Bastan & Hamed Shakouri Ganjavi & Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, 2020. "Educational demographics: a system dynamics model for human resource management," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 11(3), pages 662-676, June.

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