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Empirical Models of Political Risks in U.S. Oil Production Operations in Venezuela

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  • Randall J Jones

    (Central State University)

Abstract

In 9 of the years between 1961 and 1978, Venezuelan regimes took actions adverse to the profitability of l U.S oil companies’ local production operations. In this study 2 time-series discriminant models were developed for classifying each of the 18 years according to the occurrence of such action. In the first model, adverse government action was found more likely to occur following years of economic decline and periods when U.S. companies earned high profits from petroleum investments in Venezuela. In the second model, government action tended to occur after periods of relative deprivation experienced by Venezuelans. To illustrate the use of discriminant models in forecasting political risks, hypothetical scenarios were formulated from which projections were made through 1985 of the likelihood of government action against those US oil companies’ operations remaining since the nationalization of petroleum.© 1984 JIBS. Journal of International Business Studies (1984) 15, 63–95

Suggested Citation

  • Randall J Jones, 1984. "Empirical Models of Political Risks in U.S. Oil Production Operations in Venezuela," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 15(1), pages 81-95, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jintbs:v:15:y:1984:i:1:p:81-95
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    Cited by:

    1. Roderick Duncan, 2006. "Price or politics? An investigation of the causes of expropriation," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 50(1), pages 85-101, March.
    2. Christensen, Jonas Gade, 2011. "Democracy and Expropriations," Working Papers in Economics 06/11, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    3. Christopher Hajzler, 2012. "Expropriation of foreign direct investments: sectoral patterns from 1993 to 2006," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(1), pages 119-149, April.
    4. Hajzler, Christopher, 2014. "Resource-based FDI and expropriation in developing economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 124-146.
    5. Duncan, Roderick, 2006. "Price or politics? An investigation of the causes of expropriation," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Alcantara, Lailani Laynesa & Mitsuhashi, Hitoshi, 2012. "Make-or-Break Decisions in Choosing Foreign Direct Investment Locations," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 335-351.

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