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Are Exchange Rates Excessively Volatile? And What Does "Excessively Volatile" Mean, Anyway?

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Bartolini

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Gordon M. Bodnar

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

We apply recent asset price volatility tests to re-examine whether exchange rates have been "excessively" volatile over the post-Bretton Woods period relative to the predictions of the monetary model of the exchange rate and of standard extensions with sticky prices, sluggish money adjustment, and risk premiums. Our tests reject most of the models that we examine. In general, however, we find that exchange rates have not been excessively volatile, relative to the predictions of even the most restrictive versions of the model. Alternative measures of volatility, however, may disguise the cause of rejection as excessive exchange rate volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Bartolini & Gordon M. Bodnar, 1996. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Volatile? And What Does "Excessively Volatile" Mean, Anyway?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 72-96, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:43:y:1996:i:1:p:72-96
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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1998. "À propos de la volatilité de l'euro," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 199-226.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2963 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Munazza Jabeen & Saud Ahmad Khan, 2014. "Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility by Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Pakistan," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 6(2), pages 58-76, September.
    4. Jerome Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1998. "Discussing Euro Volatility," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1998-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    5. Victoria Saporta & Kamhon Kan, 1997. "The effects of Stamp Duty on the Level and Volatility of Equity Prices," Bank of England working papers 71, Bank of England.
    6. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2963 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2973 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2963 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2973 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Heinemann, Friedrich, 1998. "Die Theorie der optimalen Währungsräume und die politische Reformfähigkeit: Ein vernachlässigtes Kriterium," ZEW Discussion Papers 98-02, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002. "Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
    12. Menguy, Severine, 2007. "The advantages of introducing an exchange rate target within the statutes of the European Central Bank," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 304-316, October.
    13. Brousseau, Vincent & Scacciavillani, Fabio, 1999. "A global hazard index for the world foreign exchange markets," Working Paper Series 0001, European Central Bank.
    14. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2973 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:erh:journl:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:59-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Hossain, Monzur, 2010. "Do Currency Regime and Developmental Stage Matter for Real Exchange Rate Volatility? A Cross-Country Analysis," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 33(4), pages 1-22, December.
    17. Pippenger, John, 2004. "The Modern Theory of the LOP and PPP: Some Implications," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt60z886n7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    18. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2973 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Fayolle, J. & Micolet, P-E., 1998. "Cycles internationaux et européens: éléments pour une problématique appliquée," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1998-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2963 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Mr. M. Nowak & Mr. Ketil Hviding & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2004. "Can Higher Reserves Help Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 2004/189, International Monetary Fund.
    22. George Furstenberg, 1998. "From Worldwide Capital Mobility to International Financial Integration: A Review Essay," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 53-84, January.
    23. Pippenger, John, 2002. "A Better Measure of Relative Volatility," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt3tp6j494, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    24. W A Razzak & Thomas Grennes, 1998. "The long-run nominal exchange rate: specification and estimation issues," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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