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Oil Wealth and Economic Behavior: The Case of Venezuela, 1965-81

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  • Reza Vaez-Zadeh

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

A short-run macroeconomic model is estimated for Venezuela to examine the hypothesis that the availability of oil resources may entail a "confidence effect"--on perceived future incomes--that influences the expenditure and portfolio behavior of economic agents. The confidence effect is found to be empirically significant. Model simulations reveal that the impact of oil price changes on the level and variability of money demand, the balance of payments, and inflation are significantly more pronounced when this effect is present, with important implications for the size and structure of the needed policy interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Reza Vaez-Zadeh, 1989. "Oil Wealth and Economic Behavior: The Case of Venezuela, 1965-81," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(2), pages 343-384, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:36:y:1989:i:2:p:343-384
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    Cited by:

    1. José F. Alonso & Armando M. Lago, 1995. "A First Approximation Model of Money, Prices and Exchange Rates in Revolutionary Cuba," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 5.
    2. Gustavo Garcia Osio & Rafael Rodriguez Balza & Luis Marcano & Ricardo Penfold & Gustavo Sanchez, 1998. "La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en el América Latina: El caso de Venezuela," Research Department Publications 3016, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Velázquez, Efraín J., 1990. "El déficit cuasi-fiscal en Venezuela: 1980-1989," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 33550, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

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