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Stock Prices, Real Exchange Rates, and Optimal Capital Accumulation

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  • Robert G. Murphy

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The dynamics of the real exchange rate and the price of equity for a small open economy are analyzed using an optimizing model in which the process of capital accumulation entails adjustment costs. The analysis demonstrates how changes in fiscal policies or world interest rates can generate sustained movements in real exchange rates and equity prices simply because investment requires scarce resources. Interpreting such movements as evidence of market inefficiencies would be incorrect since adjustment is driven entirely by equilibrium in asset and goods markets. The results, however, do indicate that a stable and consistent set of fiscal policies can help reduce unnecessary volatility in real exchange rates and equity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert G. Murphy, 1989. "Stock Prices, Real Exchange Rates, and Optimal Capital Accumulation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 102-129, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:36:y:1989:i:1:p:102-129
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    Cited by:

    1. Serven, Luis, 1995. "Capital goods imports, the real exchange rate and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 79-101, August.
    2. Brock, Philip L & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1994. "The Dependent-Economy Model with Both Traded and Nontraded Capital Goods," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 306-325, October.
    3. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-021, University of California at Berkeley.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    6. Jorge E. Roldós, 1995. "Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 158-183, March.
    7. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    8. Chang, Wen-ya & Lai, Ching-chong, 1997. "Election outcomes and the stockmarket: Further results," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 143-155, February.
    9. Agiomirgianakis, George M. & Zervoyianni, Athina, 2001. "Economic growth, international labour mobility, and unanticipated non-monetary shocks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-16, January.
    10. Karine GENTE, 2000. "Taux d’intérêt et taux de change réel dans un modèle à horizons finis," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2000044, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    11. Albert, Max & Meckl, Jürgen, 1991. "Expectations and adjustment dynamics in a two-sector model of a small open economy," Discussion Papers, Series II 132, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    12. Hwan-Chyang Lin & Hui-Kuan Tseng, 1993. "Exchange rate shocks and the current account under monopolistic competition: An intertemporal optimization model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 133-150, June.

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