IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/imfecr/v66y2018i3d10.1057_s41308-018-0062-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Benchmarking Portfolio Flows

Author

Listed:
  • John D. Burger

    (Loyola University Maryland)

  • Francis E. Warnock

    (University of Virginia
    NBER)

  • Veronica Cacdac Warnock

    (University of Virginia)

Abstract

To gauge the amount of portfolio inflows a country can expect to receive, we create a benchmark, a longer-term baseline path around which actual flows fluctuate, for 45 countries for the 2000 to 2017 period. For EMEs, there is a significant long-run relationship between actual portfolio flows and our benchmark, flows adjust strongly toward the benchmark, and our benchmark helps predict 1-year-ahead changes in inflows. For AEs, the benchmark performs well in directional forecasting exercises. In practical terms, when assessing large movements in portfolio flows it is informative to distinguish between movements toward the benchmark and movements away from the benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2018. "Benchmarking Portfolio Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(3), pages 527-563, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:66:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1057_s41308-018-0062-8
    DOI: 10.1057/s41308-018-0062-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41308-018-0062-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41308-018-0062-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    2. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 24-60, March.
    3. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis [‘The great trade collapse: what caused it and what does it mean?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 289-346.
    4. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2003. "Current Accounts in the Long and the Short Run," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 65-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "CAPITAL FLOWS AND CAPITAL-MARKET CRISES: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 35-54, November.
    6. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2010. "International capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 157-175, March.
    7. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    8. McQuade, Peter & Schmitz, Martin, 2017. "The great moderation in international capital flows: A global phenomenon?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 188-212.
    9. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2000. "Current Accounts in Debtor and Creditor Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(4), pages 1137-1166.
    10. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    11. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January.
    12. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.
    13. Andrés Fernández & Michael W Klein & Alessandro Rebucci & Martin Schindler & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 548-574, August.
    14. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-565, October.
    15. Schnader, M H & Stekler, H O, 1990. "Evaluating Predictions of Change," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 99-107, January.
    16. Matthieu Bussière & Julia Schmidt & Natacha Valla, 2018. "International Financial Flows in the New Normal: Key Patterns (and Why We Should Care)," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Laurent Ferrara & Ignacio Hernando & Daniela Marconi (ed.), International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis, pages 249-269, Springer.
    17. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    18. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    19. Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July.
    20. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    21. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2011. "Country Portfolios In Open Economy Macro‐Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 337-369, April.
    22. Mr. Philip R. Lane & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2017. "International Financial Integration in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2017/115, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Leitch, Gordon & Tanner, J Ernest, 1991. "Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits versus the Conventional Error Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 580-590, June.
    24. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Basharina, Olga & Baranova, Nina & Larin, Sergey, 2023. "Разработка И Апробация Цифровой Модели Принятия Эффективных Инвестиционных Решений Для Формирования Стратегий Развития Экономических Субъектов [Building and testing a digital model for effective in," MPRA Paper 119334, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Sep 2023.
    2. Gao Meng & Eric Wincoop, 2020. "A Decomposition of International Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 362-389, June.
    3. Filippo Gori & Etienne Lepers & Caroline Mehigan, 2024. "Capital flow deflection under the magnifying glass," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3758-3778, July.
    4. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E. & Warnock, Veronica Cacdac, 2022. "A natural level of capital flows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-16.
    5. repec:ire:issued:v:26:n:03:2023:p:342-391 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Valerio Della Corte & Stefano Federico, 2019. "Two tales of foreign investor outflows: Italy in 2011-2012 and 2018," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 535, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Sariye Belgin Akcay, 2023. "Current Account Imbalances, House Prices, and Institutions," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(3), pages 343-392.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E. & Warnock, Veronica Cacdac, 2022. "A natural level of capital flows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-16.
    2. Eller, Markus & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene, 2020. "How important are global factors for understanding the dynamics of international capital flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    4. Mary Everett & Vahagn Galstyan, 2020. "Bilateral cross-border banking and macroeconomic determinants," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 921-944, November.
    5. Cerutti, Eugenio & Hong, Gee Hee, 2021. "Substitution patterns in capital inflows: Evidence from disaggregated capital flow data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Noha Emara & Ayah El Said, 2021. "Sovereign ratings, foreign direct investment and contagion in emerging markets: Does being a BRICS country matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5217-5234, October.
    7. Krogstrup, Signe & Tille, Cédric, 2018. "Foreign currency bank funding and global factors," Kiel Working Papers 2104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "US International Equity Investment and Past and Prospective Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3440-3455, December.
    9. McQuade, Peter & Schmitz, Martin, 2019. "America First? A US-centric view of global capital flows," Working Paper Series 2238, European Central Bank.
    10. Beatrice D. Scheubel & Livio Stracca & Tille Cedric, 2019. "The Global Financial Cycle and Capital Flow Episodes: A Wobbly Link?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7967, CESifo.
    11. Davis, J. Scott & Van Wincoop, Eric, 2018. "Globalization and the increasing correlation between capital inflows and outflows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 83-100.
    12. J. Scott Davis & Giorgio Valente & Eric van Wincoop, 2019. "Global Capital Flows Cycle: Impact on Gross and Net Flows," NBER Working Papers 25721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Lepers, Etienne & Mercado, Rogelio, 2021. "Sectoral capital flows: Covariates, co-movements, and controls," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Özmen, Erdal & Taşdemir, Fatma, 2021. "Gross capital inflows and outflows: Twins or distant cousins?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    15. Onur ÖZDEMIR, 2022. "High-Income Countries and Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: Econometric Evidence from Dynamic Common-Correlated Effects Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 45-67, April.
    16. Förster, Marcel & Jorra, Markus & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 101-124.
    17. Linda S. Goldberg & Signe Krogstrup, 2018. "International Capital Flow Pressures," NBER Working Papers 24286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Everett, Mary & McQuade, Peter & O’Grady, Michael, 2020. "Bank business models as a driver of cross-border activities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    19. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E. & Wongswan, Jon, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and rebalancing in international portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-99.
    20. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2019. "Boom-Bust Capital Flow Cycles," NBER Working Papers 25890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:66:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1057_s41308-018-0062-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.