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Full Insurance, Bayesian Updated Premiums, and Adverse Selection

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Watt

    (Departamento de Análisis Económico, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, 28049-Madrid Spain.)

  • Francisco J. Vazquez

    ([1] Departamento de Análisis Económico, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, 28049-Madrid Spain.
    [2] C.U. Francisco de Vitoria, Ctra. Pozuelo-Majadahonda Km. 1,800 28223-Pozuelo de Alarcón, Madrid, Spain.)

Abstract

In the classic Rothschild-Stiglitz model of adverse selection in a competitive environment, we analyse a “no-claims bonus” type contract (bonus-malus). We show that, under full insurance coverage, if the insurance company applies Bayes's rule to learn about client probability types over time and uses this information in premium calculations for contract renewals, then there exist conditions under which all client types strictly prefer the Bayesian updating contract to the classic Rothschild-Stiglitz separating equilibrium. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory (1997) 22, 135–150. doi:10.1023/A:1008668101366

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Watt & Francisco J. Vazquez, 1997. "Full Insurance, Bayesian Updated Premiums, and Adverse Selection," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 22(2), pages 135-150, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:genrir:v:22:y:1997:i:2:p:135-150
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dionne, G. & Doherty, N., 1991. "Adverse Selection In Insurance Markets: A Selective Survey," Cahiers de recherche 9105, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    2. Mouhamadou FALL & Anne LAVIGNE, 2006. "Contrats d'assurance multi-périodiques et déformation des croyances," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 352, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    3. Ruo Jia & Zenan Wu, 2019. "Insurer commitment and dynamic pricing pattern," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 44(1), pages 87-135, March.
    4. Alma Cohen, 2012. "Asymmetric Learning in Repeated Contracting: An Empirical Study," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 419-432, May.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2008:i:18:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Tim Friehe, 2008. "Insurance, Pooling, and Resistance to Reform: The Case of Individual Uncertainty," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(18), pages 1-8.
    7. Martin Eling & Ruo Jia & Jieyu Lin & Casey Rothschild, 2022. "Technology heterogeneity and market structure," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(2), pages 427-448, June.
    8. Mouhamadou FALL & Anne LAVIGNE, 2006. "Multiperiod Health Insurance Contracts & Bayesian Updating of Beliefs," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1263, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    9. Ruo Jia & Zenan Wu, 2019. "Insurer commitment and dynamic pricing pattern," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 44(1), pages 87-135, March.
    10. Chen, Zhiping & Yang, Peng, 2020. "Robust optimal reinsurance–investment strategy with price jumps and correlated claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 27-46.
    11. Martin Eling & Ruo Jia & Yi Yao, 2017. "Between-Group Adverse Selection: Evidence From Group Critical Illness Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(2), pages 771-809, June.
    12. Biener, Christian, 2013. "Pricing in Microinsurance Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 132-144.
    13. Michael Ludkovski & Virginia R. Young, 2010. "Ex Post Moral Hazard and Bayesian Learning in Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 829-856, December.
    14. Vazquez, Francisco J. & Watt, R., 1999. "A theorem on multi-period insurance contracts without commitment," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 273-280, May.

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