IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jrinsu/v77y2010i4p829-856.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ex Post Moral Hazard and Bayesian Learning in Insurance

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Ludkovski
  • Virginia R. Young

Abstract

We study a dynamic insurance market with asymmetric information and ex post moral hazard. In our model, the insurance buyer's risk type is unknown to the insurer; moreover, the buyer has the option of not reporting losses. The insurer sets premia according to the buyer's experience rating, computed via Bayesian estimation based on buyer's history of reported claims. Accordingly, the buyer has strategic incentive to withhold information about losses. We construct an insurance market information equilibrium model and show that a variety of reporting strategies are possible. The results are illustrated with explicit computations in a two‐period risk‐neutral case study.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Ludkovski & Virginia R. Young, 2010. "Ex Post Moral Hazard and Bayesian Learning in Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 829-856, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:77:y:2010:i:4:p:829-856
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6975.2010.01366.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2010.01366.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2010.01366.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre‐André Chiappori & Bruno Jullien & Bernard Salanié & François Salanié, 2006. "Asymmetric information in insurance: general testable implications," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(4), pages 783-798, December.
    2. Jaap Abbring & Pierre-André Chiappori & Tibor Zavadil, 2008. "Better Safe than Sorry? Ex Ante and Ex Post Moral Hazard in Dynamic Insurance Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-075/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Georges Dionne & Florence Giuliano & Pierre Picard, 2009. "Optimal Auditing with Scoring: Theory and Application to Insurance Fraud," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(1), pages 58-70, January.
    4. Cooper, Russell & Hayes, Beth, 1987. "Multi-period insurance contracts," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 211-231.
    5. G. Dionne & F. Giuliano & P. Picard, 2002. "Optimal auditing for insurance fraud," THEMA Working Papers 2002-32, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    6. Richard Watt & Francisco J. Vazquez, 1997. "Full Insurance, Bayesian Updated Premiums, and Adverse Selection," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 22(2), pages 135-150, December.
    7. Georges Dionne & Pierre Lasserre, 1985. "Adverse Selection, Repeated Insurance Contracts and Announcement Strategy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(4), pages 719-723.
    8. Jaap H. Abbring & Pierre-André Chiappori & Jean Pinquet, 2003. "Moral Hazard and Dynamic Insurance Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(4), pages 767-820, June.
    9. Dionne, G & Vanasse, C, 1992. "Automobile Insurance Ratemaking in the Presence of Asymmetrical Information," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 149-165, April-Jun.
    10. Jaap H. Abbring & Pierre-André Chiappori & Jean Pinquet, 2003. "Moral Hazard and Dynamic Insurance Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(4), pages 767-820, June.
    11. Ignacio Moreno & Francisco J. Vázquez & Richard Watt, 2006. "Can Bonus‐Malus Allieviate Insurance Fraud?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 123-151, March.
    12. Michael Rothschild & Joseph Stiglitz, 1976. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(4), pages 629-649.
    13. Tibor Zavadil & Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Jaap H. Abbring, 2007. "Better Safe than Sorry? Ex Ante and Ex Post Moral Hazard in Dynamic Insurance," 2007 Meeting Papers 869, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. John C. Harsanyi, 1967. "Games with Incomplete Information Played by "Bayesian" Players, I-III Part I. The Basic Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3), pages 159-182, November.
    15. Dionne, G. & Lasserre, P., 1983. "Adverse Selection and Repeated Insurance Contracts: Finite and Infinite Horizons," Cahiers de recherche 8326, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    16. Pierre‐André Chiappori & Bruno Jullien & Bernard Salanié & François Salanié, 2006. "Asymmetric information in insurance: general testable implications," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 37(4), pages 783-798, December.
    17. Townsend, Robert M, 1982. "Optimal Multiperiod Contracts and the Gain from Enduring Relationships under Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1166-1186, December.
    18. Arthur J. Hosios & Michael Peters, 1989. "Repeated Insurance Contracts with Adverse Selection and Limited Commitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 229-253.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Øyvind Kvalnes, 2011. "Blurred Promises: Ethical Consequences of Fine Print Policies in Insurance," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 103(1), pages 77-86, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dionne, Georges, 2012. "The empirical measure of information problems with emphasis on insurance fraud and dynamic data," Working Papers 12-10, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    2. Dionne, Georges & Harrington, Scott, 2017. "Insurance and Insurance Markets," Working Papers 17-2, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    3. Dionne, G. & Doherty, N., 1991. "Adverse Selection In Insurance Markets: A Selective Survey," Cahiers de recherche 9105, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    4. Hyojoung Kim & Doyoung Kim & Subin Im & James W. Hardin, 2009. "Evidence of Asymmetric Information in the Automobile Insurance Market: Dichotomous Versus Multinomial Measurement of Insurance Coverage," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 343-366, June.
    5. Dionne, Georges & Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Pinquet, Jean, 2013. "A review of recent theoretical and empirical analyses of asymmetric information in road safety and automobile insurance," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 85-97.
    6. Alma Cohen & Liran Einav, 2007. "Estimating Risk Preferences from Deductible Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 745-788, June.
    7. Feng Gao & Michael R. Powers & Jun Wang, 2017. "Decomposing Asymmetric Information in China's Automobile Insurance Market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1269-1293, December.
    8. Georges Dionne & Casey G. Rothschild, 2011. "Risk Classification in Insurance Contracting," Cahiers de recherche 1137, CIRPEE.
    9. Ciprian MatiÅŸ & Eugenia MatiÅŸ, 2013. "Asymmetric Information In Insurance Field: Some General Considerations," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(15), pages 1-17.
    10. Alma Cohen & Peter Siegelman, 2010. "Testing for Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 39-84, March.
    11. Dionne, Georges & Fombaron, Nathalie & Doherty, Neil, 2012. "Adverse selection in insurance contracting," Working Papers 12-8, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    12. Daniel McFadden & Carlos Noton & Pau Olivella, "undated". "Remedies for Sick Insurance," Working Papers 620, Barcelona School of Economics.
    13. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Mark R. Cullen, 2010. "Estimating Welfare in Insurance Markets Using Variation in Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 877-921.
    14. Hanming Fang & Michael P. Keane & Dan Silverman, 2008. "Sources of Advantageous Selection: Evidence from the Medigap Insurance Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 303-350, April.
    15. Raj Chetty & Amy Finkelstein, 2012. "Social Insurance: Connecting Theory to Data," NBER Working Papers 18433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Georges Dionne & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Maki Dahchour, 2013. "Separating Moral Hazard From Adverse Selection And Learning In Automobile Insurance: Longitudinal Evidence From France," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 897-917, August.
    17. Shi, Peng & Valdez, Emiliano A., 2011. "A copula approach to test asymmetric information with applications to predictive modeling," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 226-239, September.
    18. Karl Ove Aarbu, 2017. "Asymmetric Information in the Home Insurance Market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(1), pages 35-72, March.
    19. Dardanoni, Valentino & Li Donni, Paolo, 2012. "Incentive and selection effects of Medigap insurance on inpatient care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 457-470.
    20. Bedsworth, Fredrick & Neal, Daniel R. & Portillo, Javier E. & Willardsen, Kevin, 2021. "Asymmetric information and insurance: An experimental approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:77:y:2010:i:4:p:829-856. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ariaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.