IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/compes/v64y2022i1d10.1057_s41294-021-00155-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Peace Promote Bilateral Trade Flows? An Economic Analysis of Panel Data in Asian Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Ghulam Shabbir

    (Forman Christian College University Lahore)

  • Amjad Naveed

    (Aarhus University)

  • Muhammad Ali Khan

    (Forman Christian College University Lahore)

  • Shabib Haider Syed

    (Minhaj University Lahore)

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of peace on the bilateral trade flows of Pakistan under the framework of the gravity model. Specifically, we tested the impact of peace (using the Global Peace Index) in Pakistan relative to its 26 trading partners on trade flows from 2007 to 2018. Using system GMM estimation procedure that takes care of endogeneity issues, this study shows that the standard gravity model does not hold in the case of Pakistan. Therefore, it is important to investigate whether the peace in Pakistan and its trading partner promotes trade in the regions. Furthermore, the results indicate that a rise in the prevalence of peace in Pakistan relative to its trading nation has significantly and positively contributed to its trade flows. Besides, development of infrastructure improves trade flow due to low transportation cost. From a policy perspective, reducing conflict and promoting peace will further encourage neighboring countries to enhance trade relations, which will be beneficial for the whole region.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghulam Shabbir & Amjad Naveed & Muhammad Ali Khan & Shabib Haider Syed, 2022. "Does Peace Promote Bilateral Trade Flows? An Economic Analysis of Panel Data in Asian Perspective," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(1), pages 143-158, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:64:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1057_s41294-021-00155-2
    DOI: 10.1057/s41294-021-00155-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41294-021-00155-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41294-021-00155-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Nowak-Lehmann, Felicitas, 2003. "Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, November.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    4. Nazia Gul & Hafiz M. Yasin, 2011. "The Trade Potential of Pakistan: An Application of the Gravity Model," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 23-62, Jan-Jun.
    5. Egger, Peter, 2000. "A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 25-31, January.
    6. Edward E. Leamer, 1988. "Measures of Openness," NBER Chapters, in: Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis, pages 145-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    8. Edwards, Sebastian, 1993. "Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1358-1393, September.
    9. Bougheas, Spiros & Demetriades, Panicos O. & Morgenroth, Edgar L. W., 1999. "Infrastructure, transport costs and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 169-189, February.
    10. Alan V. Deardorff, 2011. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert M Stern (ed.), Comparative Advantage, Growth, And The Gains From Trade And Globalization A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff, chapter 24, pages 267-293, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Waheed Akram Butt, 2008. "Pakistan's Export Potential: A Gravity Model Analysis," SBP Working Paper Series 23, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    12. Solomon William Polachek, 1980. "Conflict and Trade," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(1), pages 55-78, March.
    13. Lars Karlsson & Peter Hedberg, 2021. "War and trade in the peaceful century: the impact of interstate wars on bilateral trade flows during the first wave of globalization, 1830–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(3), pages 809-830, August.
    14. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-153, February.
    15. Moravcsik, Andrew, 1997. "Taking Preferences Seriously: A Liberal Theory of International Politics," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 513-553, October.
    16. Polachek, Solomon & Xiang, Jun, 2010. "How Opportunity Costs Decrease the Probability of War in an Incomplete Information Game," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 133-144, January.
    17. Fritz Breuss & Peter Egger, 1999. "How Reliable Are Estimations of East-West Trade Potentials Based on Cross-Section Gravity Analyses?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 81-94, June.
    18. Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 62-81, March.
    19. Gartzke, Erik, 1999. "War Is in the Error Term," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 567-587, July.
    20. Gartzke, Erik & Li, Quan & Boehmer, Charles, 2001. "Investing in the Peace: Economic Interdependence and International Conflict," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 391-438, April.
    21. Alam Khan & Mario Estrada & Zarinah Yusof, 2016. "How terrorism affects the economic performance? The case of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 867-883, March.
    22. Robert E. Baldwin, 1988. "Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bald88-2, February.
    23. Alam Khan & Zarinah Yusof, 2017. "Terrorist economic impact evaluation (TEIE) model: the case of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1381-1394, May.
    24. Cragg, John G, 1983. "More Efficient Estimation in the Presence of Heteroscedasticity of Unknown Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 751-763, May.
    25. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    26. Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2010. "The factors affecting Bangladesh's exports:evidence from the gravity model analysis," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 44(1), pages 229-244, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mónica Domínguez & Juan Aparicio & Antonio Fonfria, 2024. "The defence economy: an assessment of productivity change in NATO countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(18), pages 2158-2175, April.
    2. Hauwah K. K. Abdulkareem & Sodiq Olaiwola Jimoh & Ebenezer Olubiyi, 2023. "Trade–peace conundrum in Africa: The moderating effects of poverty and inequality," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(4), pages 323-335, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Felicitas, Nowak-Lehmann D. & Horsewood, Nicholas, 2009. "Are regional trading agreements beneficial?: Static and dynamic panel gravity models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 46-65, March.
    2. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Nicholas Horsewood, 2006. "Effects of Regional Trade Agreements Using a Static and Dynamic Gravity Equation," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 149, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Amjad Naveed & Ghulam Shabbir & Shabib Haider Syed & Muhammad Ashfaq & Muhammad Ali Khan, 2022. "Can a path to peace promote export growth? Evidence from Pakistan and its trading partners," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3309-3324, October.
    4. Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, 2003. "Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 291-316, November.
    5. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A Survey of the Assessments of the Effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using Gravity Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 421-473.
    6. NOWAK-LEHMANN D., Felicitas & HERZER, Dierk & VOLLMER, Sebastian, 2007. "The Free Trade Agreement Between Chile And The Eu: Its Potential Impact On Chile’S Export Industry," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    7. Sierra-Fernández, Mª Del Pilar & Martínez-Campillo, Almudena, 2009. "Impacto del proceso de integración europea sobre las exportaciones de Castilla y León (1993-2007): un análisis econométrico a partir de la ecuación de gravedad/The Impact of the European Integration P," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 27, pages 783(34á)-78, Diciembre.
    8. repec:got:cegedp:43 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Sushil Kumar & Shahid Ahmed, 2015. "Gravity Model by Panel Data Approach," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 50(4), pages 233-249, November.
    10. Estrella Gómez-Herrera, 2013. "Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1087-1111, June.
    11. Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Herzer, Dierk & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Vollmer, Sebastian, 2005. "Turkey and the Ankara Treaty of 1963: What can Trade Integration Do for Turkish Exports," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 43, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    12. Simone Juhasz Silva & Douglas Nelson, 2012. "Does Aid Cause Trade? Evidence from an Asymmetric Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5), pages 545-577, May.
    13. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2008. "Heterogeneity In Trade Costs," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(48), pages 1-14.
    14. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2004. "Gravity Models of the Intra-EU Trade: Application of the Hausman-Taylor Estimation in Heterogeneous Panels with Common Time-specific Factors," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 671, Econometric Society.
    15. Inma Martínez-Zarzoso & F. D. Nowak-Lehmann & S. Klasen, 2017. "Aid and Its Impact on the Donor’s Export Industry: The Dutch Case," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 29(4), pages 769-786, August.
    16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:48:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2007. "Gravity models of intra-EU trade: application of the CCEP-HT estimation in heterogeneous panels with unobserved common time-specific factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 361-381.
    18. Salahuddin & Javed Iqbal & Misbah Nosheen, 2020. "Economic & Cultural Distance & Regional Integration: Evidence from Gravity Model Using Disaggregated Data for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 243-274.
    19. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2013. "Climate Change Creates Trade Opportunity in India," MPRA Paper 50636, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Oct 2013.
    20. Peter Egger, 2000. "The Impact of EU Accession of Selected CEECs on Bilateral Economic Relations with the EU. A Dynamic Gravity Approach," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 5(3), pages 135-143, July.
    21. Sultan, Maryam & Munir, Kashif, 2015. "Export, Import and Total Trade Potential of Pakistan: A Gravity Model Approach," MPRA Paper 66621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Zaki Mehchy & Rabie Nasser & Marc Schiffbauer, 2013. "Trade Determinants and Potential of Syria: Using A Gravity Model, With an Estimation of The Syrian Crisis’ Impact on Exports," Working Papers 773, Economic Research Forum, revised Sep 2013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade flows; Peace; Infrastructure; Gravity model; System GMM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:64:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1057_s41294-021-00155-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.