IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/assmgt/v8y2007i2d10.1057_palgrave.jam.2250062.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Capitalising on European analyst earnings estimates and recommendations during different volatility regime periods

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea S Au

    (State Street Global Advisors)

Abstract

Examining market-adjusted cumulative abnormal returns following European analyst earnings estimate and recommendation announcements, I find that both factors are significant when considered unconditionally and conditional on each other. When examining the strength of these factors during different market regime periods, however, I find that when the market or stock volatility for a given month is unusually high or dispersion between the market and stock volatilities is unusually low, the significance of both the EPS estimate and recommendation factors decreases or is non-existent. In addition, the least favourable quintile of securities — as measured by change in the earnings or recommendation factor — no longer exhibits the least favourable market-adjusted cumulative abnormal return. Since volatility is somewhat persistent, modifying analyst factor models based on recent market environments increases potential portfolio returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea S Au, 2007. "Capitalising on European analyst earnings estimates and recommendations during different volatility regime periods," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(2), pages 74-85, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:8:y:2007:i:2:d:10.1057_palgrave.jam.2250062
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jam.2250062
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/palgrave.jam.2250062
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/palgrave.jam.2250062?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    2. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    3. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    4. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Kim, Woojin, 2006. "Value of analyst recommendations: International evidence," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 274-309, August.
    5. Alon Brav & Reuven Lehavy, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Analysts' Target Prices: Short‐term Informativeness and Long‐term Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1933-1967, October.
    6. Asquith, Paul & Mikhail, Michael B. & Au, Andrea S., 2005. "Information content of equity analyst reports," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 245-282, February.
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    8. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:5:p:1933-1968 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Francis, J & Soffer, L, 1997. "The relative informativeness of analysts' stock recommendations and earnings forecast revisions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 193-211.
    10. Lys, Thomas & Sohn, Sungkyu, 1990. "The association between revisions of financial analysts' earnings forecasts and security-price changes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 341-363, December.
    11. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrea S Au, 2007. "Extracting information from European analyst forecasts," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(4), pages 228-237, November.
    2. Hsieh, Wen-liang Gideon & Lee, Chin-Shen, 2021. "Who reacts to what information in securities analyst reports? Direct evidence from the investor trade imbalance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Gus De Franco & Hai Lu & Florin P. Vasvari, 2007. "Wealth Transfer Effects of Analysts' Misleading Behavior," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 71-110, March.
    4. Marina Balboa & J. Carlos Gómez‐Sala & Germán López‐Espinosa, 2009. "The Value of Adjusting the Bias in Recommendations: International Evidence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(1), pages 208-230, January.
    5. Jiang, Xiong-Fei & Xiong, Long & Cen, Tao & Bai, Ling & Zhao, Na & Zhang, Jiu & Zheng, Chang-Juan & Jiang, Tian-Ying, 2022. "Analyst sentiment and earning forecast bias in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
    6. Tsung-Yu Hsieh & Tsai-Yin Lin & Fangjhy Li & Yi-Ting Huang, 2023. "Analyst’s Target Price Revision and Dealer’s Trading Behavior Analysis: Evidence from Taiwanese Stock Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-9, February.
    7. Jiang, George J. & Lu, Liangliang & Zhu, Dongming, 2014. "The information content of analyst recommendation revisions — Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-17.
    8. Koji Ota, 2012. "Information Content of Analysts' Stock Ratings and Earnings Forecasts in the Presence of Management Earnings Forecasts," The Japanese Accounting Review, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, vol. 2, pages 87-116, December.
    9. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    10. Brian Gibbons & Peter Iliev & Jonathan Kalodimos, 2021. "Analyst Information Acquisition via EDGAR," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 769-793, February.
    11. Ryan G. Chacon & Dan W. French & Kuntara Pukthuanthong, 2021. "The Information Content of NAV Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 598-629, November.
    12. Stefano Bonini & Laura Zanetti & Roberto Bianchini & Antonio Salvi, 2010. "Target Price Accuracy in Equity Research," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9‐10), pages 1177-1217, November.
    13. Son, Byung-Gak & Sodhi, ManMohan & Kocabasoglu-Hillmer, Canan & Lee, Tae-Hee, 2016. "Supply chain information in analyst reports on publicly traded companies," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(P3), pages 350-360.
    14. Mohammadi, Ali & Basir, Nada O. & Beyhaghi, Mehdi, 2015. "Research Intensity and Financial Analysts Earnings Forecast: Signaling Effects of Patents," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 397, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    15. Justin Birru & Sinan Gokkaya & Xi Liu & René M. Stulz, 2022. "Are Analyst Short‐Term Trade Ideas Valuable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1829-1875, June.
    16. Rojas-de-Gracia, María-Mercedes & Casado-Molina, Ana-María & Alarcón-Urbistondo, Pilar, 2021. "Relationship between reputational aspects of companies and their share price in the online environment," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Chen Su, 2023. "The price impact of analyst revisions and the state of the economy: Evidence around the world," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 887-930, November.
    18. Engelberg, Joseph & McLean, R. David & Pontiff, Jeffrey, 2020. "Analysts and anomalies," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    19. Thabang Mokoaleli-Mokoteli & Richard J. Taffler & Vineet Agarwal, 2009. "Behavioural Bias and Conflicts of Interest in Analyst Stock Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3-4), pages 384-418.
    20. Markus Buxbaum & Wolfgang Schultze & Samuel L. Tiras, 2023. "Do analysts’ target prices stabilize the stock market?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 763-816, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:8:y:2007:i:2:d:10.1057_palgrave.jam.2250062. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.