IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/assmgt/v21y2020i6d10.1057_s41260-020-00182-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can fund sentiment beta predict future performance?

Author

Listed:
  • Qiang Bu

    (Pennsylvania State University-Harrisburg)

  • Odd J. Stalebrink

    (Pennsylvania State University-Harrisburg)

Abstract

Using both actual and bootstrapped fund samples, this paper examines whether fund sentiment beta (FSB) can be used to predict future fund performance, whether FSB exhibits persistence across time periods, and whether FSB affects fund selectivity. We find that FSB has no significant effect on either current or subsequent fund performance and that it does not exhibit any persistence across time. Also, we find no evidence of a relationship between FSB and fund selectivity. Contrary to prior research, these findings suggest that an FSB-based strategy is unlikely to be a profitable strategy for fund managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiang Bu & Odd J. Stalebrink, 2020. "Can fund sentiment beta predict future performance?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(6), pages 524-534, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:21:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1057_s41260-020-00182-1
    DOI: 10.1057/s41260-020-00182-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41260-020-00182-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41260-020-00182-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lakonishok, Josef, et al, 1991. "Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 227-231, May.
    2. Roger G. Ibbotson & Jody L. Sindelar & Jay R Ritter, 1994. "The Market'S Problems With The Pricing Of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 7(1), pages 66-74, March.
    3. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    4. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2015. "Editor's Choice The Sum of All FEARS Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 1-32.
    5. Qiang Bu, 2020. "Investor Sentiment and Mutual Fund Alpha," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 57-65, January.
    6. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2000. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2219-2257, October.
    7. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    8. Neal, Robert & Wheatley, Simon M., 1998. "Do Measures of Investor Sentiment Predict Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 523-547, December.
    9. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    10. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    11. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Busse, Jeffrey A, 1998. "Do Investors Care about Sentiment?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(4), pages 477-500, October.
    12. Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015. "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 791-837.
    13. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    14. Yang, Chunpeng & Wu, Huihui, 2019. "Chasing investor sentiment in stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    15. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    16. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    17. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1125-1165 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Massa, Massimo & Yadav, Vijay, 2015. "Investor Sentiment and Mutual Fund Strategies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 699-727, August.
    19. Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015. "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 791-837.
    20. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    21. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    22. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Jeffrey A. Busse, 1998. "Do Investors Care About Sentiment?," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-028, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ung, Sze Nie & Gebka, Bartosz & Anderson, Robert D.J., 2023. "Is sentiment the solution to the risk–return puzzle? A (cautionary) note," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    2. Yuan Li, 2022. "Mood Beta, Sentiment and Stock Returns in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, February.
    3. Wenjie Ding & Khelifa Mazouz & Qingwei Wang, 2019. "Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns: new theory and evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 493-525, August.
    4. Zhou, Xuemei & Liu, Qiang & Guo, Shuxin, 2021. "Do overnight returns explain firm-specific investor sentiment in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 451-477.
    5. Paudel, Shishir & Silveri, Sabatino (Dino) & Wu, Mark, 2022. "Investor sentiment and asset prices: Evidence from the ex-day," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Zaremba, Adam & Szyszka, Adam & Long, Huaigang & Zawadka, Dariusz, 2020. "Business sentiment and the cross-section of global equity returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Bonsu, Christiana Osei & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "The effects of public sentiments and feelings on stock market behavior: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 443-472.
    8. Hou, Yang & Meng, Jiayin, 2018. "The momentum effect in the Chinese market and its relationship with the simultaneous and the lagged investor sentiment," MPRA Paper 94838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Zhang, Hang & Tsai, Wei-Che & Weng, Pei-Shih & Tsai, Pin-Chieh, 2023. "Overnight returns and investor sentiment: Further evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo & Benjamin Scheick, 2014. "Investor Sentiment, Limits to Arbitrage and Private Market Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 531-577, September.
    11. Szymon Lis, 2022. "Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models: A Review," Working Papers 2022-14, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    12. Jiang, Fuwei & Lee, Joshua & Martin, Xiumin & Zhou, Guofu, 2019. "Manager sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 126-149.
    13. Berger, Dave & Turtle, H.J., 2012. "Cross-sectional performance and investor sentiment in a multiple risk factor model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1107-1121.
    14. Kim Kaivanto & Peng Zhang, 2019. "Investor Sentiment as a Predictor of Market Returns," Working Papers 268005798, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    15. Jiang, Fuwei & Lee, Joshua & Martin, Xiumin & Zhou, Guofu, 2019. "Manager sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 126-149.
    16. Mahmoudi, Nader & Docherty, Paul & Melia, Adrian, 2022. "Firm-level investor sentiment and corporate announcement returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Fuwei Jiang & Wei Ning & Hao Xue, 2023. "Factor Timing with Investor Sentiment," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 24(2), pages 401-437, November.
    18. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2018. "Predicting Stock Returns And Volatility With Investor Sentiment Indices: A Reconsideration Using A Nonparametric Causality†In†Quantiles Test," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 74-87, January.
    19. Aissia, Dorsaf Ben, 2016. "Home and foreign investor sentiment and the stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 71-77.
    20. Yiannis Karavias & Stella Spilioti & Elias Tzavalis, 2021. "Investor sentiment effects on share price deviations from their intrinsic values based on accounting fundamentals," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1593-1621, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fund sentiment beta; BW index; Persistence; Selectivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:21:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1057_s41260-020-00182-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.