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Los determinantes del ahorro privado en el Perú y el papel de la política económica

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  • Jorge Barreda
  • Elmer Cuba B.

Abstract

El presente trabajo investiga sobre el comportamiento del ahorro privado en la economía peruana de los últimos 46 años y sobre los determinantes de esta variable. Sobre la base del modelo neoclásico de crecimiento y de ciertos supuestos sobre los parámetros del modelo, encuentra que la tasa de ahorro interno que maximizaría el consumo ínter-temporal fluctuaría entre 28 y 33 por ciento del PBI, es decir, más de 10 puntos del PBI por encima del 17,4 por ciento registrado en 1996. También encuentra justificaciones teóricas y prácticas para la implementación de una política fiscal activa, orientada al incremento de la tasa de ahorro público. Asimismo, se presenta un modelo empírico de series de tiempo que satisface una batería de test y da cuenta del comportamiento observado por el ahorro privado. Finalmente, utilizando el modelo estadístico, bajo ciertos escenarios de crecimiento y ahorro externo, la tasa de ahorro nacional estaría alcanzando el rango óptimo en un plazo de seis a siete años (2003).

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Barreda & Elmer Cuba B., 2000. "Los determinantes del ahorro privado en el Perú y el papel de la política económica," Apuntes. Revista de ciencias sociales, Fondo Editorial, Universidad del Pacífico, vol. 27(47), pages 59-110.
    • Handle: RePEc:pai:apunup:es-47-02
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