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Diferencias departamentales de crecimiento. Un análisis de convergencia para Perú: 1961-1996

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  • Juan Carlos Odar Z.

Abstract

Partiendo de la teoría neoclásica del crecimiento, este trabajo explora si los beneficios del crecimiento experimentado por el Perú, en los primeros años de la década de los noventa, llegarán a sentirse en toda la población. Si es así, ¿cuándo ocurrirá eso? En particular, ¿los departamentos del Perú convergen hacia un mismo nivel de producto per-cápita o, al menos, a una tasa única de crecimiento? Para no limitar el trabajo al año de inicio de las estadísticas departamentales de producción (1970) y para ampliar el horizonte del estudio, también se estimó el PBI departamental de 1961. Aunque no se encuentra evidencia concluyente sobre convergencia, sí se halla que es posible para el Estado incidir en el producto de largo plazo. De un lado, la tasa de analfabetismo afecta negativamente el valor de la producción per cápita, lo que indica la importancia de una política educativa en este sentido. De otra parte, la inversión y el gasto públicos, si bien pueden atender las demandas inmediatas de quienes así lo requieran, en el largo plazo solo incidirán negativamente sobre el nivel de producción.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Odar Z., 2000. "Diferencias departamentales de crecimiento. Un análisis de convergencia para Perú: 1961-1996," Apuntes. Revista de ciencias sociales, Fondo Editorial, Universidad del Pacífico, vol. 27(47), pages 5-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:pai:apunup:es-47-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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