IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ozl/journl/v4y2001i1p41-55.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Australian Unemployment Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Max Stevenson

    (University of Technology, Sydney)

  • Maurice Peat

    (University of Technology, Sydney)

Abstract

Cyclical asymmetry has been recognized as a non-linear phenomenon in recent studies examining unemployment rate time series. The probabilistic structure of such time series is different during economic upswings and downswings. So, with forecasting unemployment rates in mind, it seems intuitive that models should reflect this change in structure by incorporating non-linearities. This allows for the switching in optimizing behaviour between different phases of the business cycle. Accordingly, this paper evaluates the point forecasts from models of the monthly, aggregate Australian unemployment rate series; these models being drawn from both the linear and non-linear classes. The non-linear model is based on a standard logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model of unemployment which includes a lagged level term and a seasonal, rather than first-difference transition variable. Forecasts from this model are evaluated against the best-fitting linear autoregressive (AR) alternative. Dynamic point forecasts over twenty-four months, suggest that the LSTAR forecasts are more accurate than the linear AR alternative. However, there is no statistical difference between the forecasts from both models on a one-to-twelve step-ahead basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Stevenson & Maurice Peat, 2000. "Forecasting Australian Unemployment Rates," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 4(1), pages 41-55, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:4:y:2001:i:1:p:41-55
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peat, Maurice & Stevenson, Max, 1996. "Asymmetry in the business cycle: Evidence from the Australian labour market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 353-368, September.
    2. Gerard A. Pfann & Franz C. Palm, 1993. "Asymmetric Adjustment Costs in Non-linear Labour Demand Models for the Netherlands and U.K. Manufacturing Sectors," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(2), pages 397-412.
    3. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    4. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    5. Rothman, Philip, 1991. "Further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 291-298.
    6. Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2002. "Modeling Asymmetries And Moving Equilibria In Unemployment Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 202-241, April.
    7. Burgess, Simon M, 1988. "Employment Adjustment in UK Manufacturing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 81-103, March.
    8. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1.
    9. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    10. Philip Rothman, 1998. "Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 164-168, February.
    11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hayashi, Masayoshi, 2014. "Forecasting welfare caseloads: The case of the Japanese public assistance program," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 105-114.
    2. Patrick J. Wilson & L.J. Perry, 2004. "Forecasting Australian Unemployment Rates using Spectral Analysis," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 7(4), pages 459-480, December.
    3. Amaral, Luiz Felipe & Souza, Reinaldo Castro & Stevenson, Maxwell, 2008. "A smooth transition periodic autoregressive (STPAR) model for short-term load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 603-615.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peat, Maurice & Stevenson, Max, 1996. "Asymmetry in the business cycle: Evidence from the Australian labour market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 353-368, September.
    2. Maurice Peat & Max Stevenson, 1995. "Testing for Nonlinearities in Economic and Financial Time Series," Working Paper Series 48, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. Mohamed CHIKHI & Claude DIEBOLT, 2022. "Testing the weak form efficiency of the French ETF market with the LSTAR-ANLSTGARCH approach using a semiparametric estimation," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 13, pages 228-253, June.
    4. Bårdsen Gunnar & Hurn Stanley & McHugh Zöe, 2012. "Asymmetric Unemployment Rate Dynamics in Australia," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, January.
    5. Singh, Tarlok, 2014. "On the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth in the OECD countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 169-192.
    6. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2013. "Generalizing smooth transition autoregressions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Liu, Yamei, 2000. "Overfitting and forecasting: linear versus non-linear time series models," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000014914, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Rocha, Jordano Vieira & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2015. "Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production," Textos para discussão 397, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    9. Ginger M. Davis & Katherine B. Ensor, 2007. "Multivariate Time‐Series Analysis With Categorical and Continuous Variables in an Lstr Model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(6), pages 867-885, November.
    10. Öcal Nadir, 2000. "Nonlinear Models for U.K. Macroeconomic Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 1-15, October.
    11. D. Jones & Maurice Peat & Max Stevenson, 1996. "Does the Process of Spatial Aggregation of U.K. Unemplyment Rate Series Serve to Induce or Remove Evidence of Asymmetry in the Business Cycle," Working Paper Series 67, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    12. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2017. "Unemployment hysteresis and structural change in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1415-1440, December.
    13. Álvaro Escribano & Oscar Jordá, 2001. "Testing nonlinearity: Decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential STAR models," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 193-209.
    14. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    15. Param Silvapulle & Titi Kanti Lestari & Jae Kim, 2004. "Nonlinear Modelling of Purchasing Power Parity in Indonesia," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 316, Econometric Society.
    16. Vito Polito & Yunyi Zhang, 2021. "Tackling Large Outliers in Macroeconomic Data with Vector Artificial Neural Network Autoregression," CESifo Working Paper Series 9395, CESifo.
    17. Zanetti Chini, Emilio, 2018. "Forecasting dynamically asymmetric fluctuations of the U.S. business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 711-732.
    18. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
    19. Alvaro Escribano & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "Improved Testing And Specification Of Smooth Transition Regression Models," Department of Economics 97-26, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    20. Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1999. "Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 311-340, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomics; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Wage Indexation Unemployment; Models; Duration; Incidence; and Job Search Forecasting and Other Model Applications;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:4:y:2001:i:1:p:41-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sandie Rawnsley (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/becurau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.