IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ove/journl/aid11556.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from three centuries of UK data

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Almail
  • Fahad Almudhaf

Abstract

We examine the evolving efficiency of UK stock market and currency (British Pound) during the last three centuries. Using both Automatic Variance Ratio (AVR) and Automatic Portmanteau (AQ) tests, we find evidence of time-varying degree of efficiency which supports the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH).

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Almail & Fahad Almudhaf, 2017. "Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from three centuries of UK data," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 48-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:ove:journl:aid:11556
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://reunido.uniovi.es/index.php/EBL/article/view/11556
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    2. Escanciano, J. Carlos & Lobato, Ignacio N., 2009. "An automatic Portmanteau test for serial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(2), pages 140-149, August.
    3. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    5. Choi, In, 1999. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis for Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 293-308, May-June.
    6. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2016. "Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the adaptive market hypothesis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 39-49.
    7. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2011. "Stock return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from century-long U.S. data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 868-879.
    8. Urquhart, Andrew & Hudson, Robert, 2013. "Efficient or adaptive markets? Evidence from major stock markets using very long run historic data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 130-142.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    10. Kim, Jae H., 2009. "Automatic variance ratio test under conditional heteroskedasticity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 179-185, September.
    11. Kian-Ping Lim & Weiwei Luo & Jae H. Kim, 2013. "Are US stock index returns predictable? Evidence from automatic autocorrelation-based tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 953-962, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adedoyin Isola Lawal & Abiola A. Babajide & Tony Ikechukwu Nwanji & Damilola Eluyela, 2018. "Are Oil Prices Mean Reverting? Evidence from Unit Root Tests with Sharp and Smooth Breaks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 292-298.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Vasilios Plakandaras, 2019. "Efficiency in BRICS Currency Markets Using Long-Spans of Data: Evidence from Model-Free Tests of Directional Predictability," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(1), pages 152-165.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Pınar Evrim Mandacı & F. Dilvin Taskın & Zeliha Can Ergun, 2019. "Adaptive Market Hypothesis," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 84-101.
    3. Biswabhusan Bhuyan & Subhamitra Patra & Ranjan Kumar Bhuian, 2020. "Market Adaptability and Evolving Predictability of Stock Returns: An Evidence from India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(4), pages 605-619, December.
    4. Boya, Christophe M., 2019. "From efficient markets to adaptive markets: Evidence from the French stock exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 156-165.
    5. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    6. Mirzaee Ghazani, Majid & Khalili Araghi, Mansour, 2014. "Evaluation of the adaptive market hypothesis as an evolutionary perspective on market efficiency: Evidence from the Tehran stock exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 50-59.
    7. Jian Zhou & Jin Man Lee, 2013. "Adaptive market hypothesis: evidence from the REIT market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(21), pages 1649-1662, November.
    8. Rahman, Md. Lutfur & Lee, Doowon & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2017. "Time-varying return predictability in South Asian equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 179-200.
    9. Verheyden, Tim & De Moor, Lieven & Van den Bossche, Filip, 2015. "Towards a new framework on efficient markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 294-308.
    10. Manahov, Viktor & Urquhart, Andrew, 2021. "The efficiency of Bitcoin: A strongly typed genetic programming approach to smart electronic Bitcoin markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Ozkan, Oktay, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on stock market efficiency: Evidence from developed countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2016. "Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the adaptive market hypothesis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 39-49.
    13. Xiong, Xiong & Meng, Yongqiang & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua, 2019. "An empirical analysis of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis with calendar effects:Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    14. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H Kim, 2017. "Adaptive Markets Hypothesis for Islamic Stock Portfolios: Evidence from Dow Jones Size and Sector-Indices," Post-Print hal-01526483, HAL.
    15. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2017. "Adaptive markets hypothesis for Islamic stock indices: Evidence from Dow Jones size and sector-indices," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 100-112.
    16. Huai-Long Shi & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2016. "Time-varying return predictability in the Chinese stock market," Papers 1611.04090, arXiv.org.
    17. Maderitsch, R., 2015. "Information transmission between stock markets in Hong Kong, Europe and the US: New evidence on time- and state-dependence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 13-36.
    18. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2014. "Precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," Working Papers hal-01010516, HAL.
    19. Kian-Ping Lim & Weiwei Luo & Jae H. Kim, 2013. "Are US stock index returns predictable? Evidence from automatic autocorrelation-based tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 953-962, March.
    20. Md Lutfur Rahman & Mahbub Khan & Samuel A. Vigne & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2021. "Equity return predictability, its determinants, and profitable trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 162-186, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ove:journl:aid:11556. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Francisco J. Delgado (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deovies.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.