IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2018-06-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are Oil Prices Mean Reverting? Evidence from Unit Root Tests with Sharp and Smooth Breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Adedoyin Isola Lawal

    (Department of Accounting and Finance, Landmark University, Omu Aran, Nigeria)

  • Abiola A. Babajide

    (Department of Banking and Finance, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria)

  • Tony Ikechukwu Nwanji

    (Department of Accounting and Finance, Landmark University, Omu Aran, Nigeria)

  • Damilola Eluyela

    (Department of Accounting and Finance, Landmark University, Omu Aran, Nigeria)

Abstract

This study examined the validity of efficiency market hypothesis for the oil market by employing a novel Fourier unit root test that accounts for sharp shifts and smooth breaks based on daily data. Our results established the existence of structural shifts and nonlinearity in the oil market indices suggesting that oil market is inefficient when structural breaks is calibrated into the model. Unlike results obtained from existing traditional unit root test, results from sharp shifts and smooth breaks unit root test suggests the rejection of unit root null for each of the oil indices. The study has some practical and policy implications based on our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Adedoyin Isola Lawal & Abiola A. Babajide & Tony Ikechukwu Nwanji & Damilola Eluyela, 2018. "Are Oil Prices Mean Reverting? Evidence from Unit Root Tests with Sharp and Smooth Breaks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 292-298.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2018-06-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/6980/4020
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/6980/4020
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Auer, Benjamin R., 2016. "On time-varying predictability of emerging stock market returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    3. Apergis, Nicholas & Vouzavalis, Grigorios, 2018. "Asymmetric pass through of oil prices to gasoline prices: Evidence from a new country sample," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 519-528.
    4. Ali Almail & Fahad Almudhaf, 2017. "Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from three centuries of UK data," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 48-53.
    5. Babajide Abiola Ayopo & Lawal Adedoyin Isola & Somoye Russel Olukayode, 2016. "Stock Market Volatility: Does Our Fundamentals Matter?," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 33-42.
    6. Syed Aun R. Rizvi & Shaista Arshad, 2016. "How does crisis affect efficiency? An empirical study of East Asian markets," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 16(1), pages 1-8, March.
    7. Al-Khazali, Osamah M. & Pyun, Chong Soo & Kim, Daewon, 2012. "Are exchange rate movements predictable in Asia-Pacific markets? Evidence of random walk and martingale difference processes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 221-231.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chuke Nwude & Damilola Felix Eluyela & Elias Igwebuike Agbo & Francis O Iyoha, 2021. "The Influence of Oil Price Fluctuations on Stock Market of Developing Economies: A Focus on Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 100-109.
    2. Iyabo Adeola Olanrele & Adedoyin I. Lawal & Ezekiel Oseni & Ahmed Oluwatobi Adekunle & Bukola, B. Lawal-Adedoyin & Crystal O. Elleke & Racheal Ojeka-John & Henry Nweke-Love, 2020. "Accessing the Impacts of Contemporary Development in Biofuel on Agriculture, Energy and Domestic Economy: Evidence from Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 469-478.
    3. Adedoyin Isola Lawal & Abiola John Asaleye & Henry Inegbedion & John Dean Ojeka & Stephen Kayode Adekunle & Enoch Olaniyan & T. David Eyiolorunshe & Olayinka Abosede Olabode, 2019. "Does Commercial Banking Activities Exerts on Agricultural Growth in Nigeria? Evidence from ARDL Framework," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 8, December.
    4. Lawal, Adedoyin Isola & Ozturk, Ilhan & Olanipekun, Ifedolapo O. & Asaleye, Abiola John, 2020. "Examining the linkages between electricity consumption and economic growth in African economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    5. Adedoyin Isola LAWAL & Ezekiel OSENI & Abiola John ASALEYE & Bukola LAWAL-ADEDOYIN & Rachael OJEKA-JOHN, 2021. "Is the Stock Market Efficient? Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests for Nigeria," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(5), pages 384-395, May.
    6. Joseph U. Madugba & E. Ben-Caleb & Adedoyin I. Lawal & Uche T. Agburuga, 2020. "Firm Size and Tax Saving Behaviour of Listed Companies in Nigeria," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 9, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kyungsoo Cha & Chul-Yong Lee, 2023. "Rockets and Feathers in the Gasoline Market: Evidence from South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-15, February.
    2. Salisu, Afees A. & Adekunle, Wasiu & Alimi, Wasiu A. & Emmanuel, Zachariah, 2019. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: New evidence from Westerlund and Narayan (2015) estimator with structural breaks and asymmetries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 33-56.
    3. D. O. Olayungbo & T. A. Ojeyinka, 2022. "Crude oil prices pass-through to retail petroleum product prices in Nigeria: evidence from hidden cointegration approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 951-972, May.
    4. Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2021. "The structure and degree of dependence in government bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Structural breaks and long memory in modeling and forecasting volatility of foreign exchange markets of oil exporters: The importance of scheduled and unscheduled news announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 101-119.
    6. dos Santos Maciel, Leandro, 2023. "Brazilian stock-market efficiency before and after COVID-19: The roles of fractality and predictability," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Aslam, Faheem & Aziz, Saqib & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Mughal, Khurrum S. & Khan, Maaz, 2020. "On the efficiency of foreign exchange markets in times of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    8. Rangan Gupta & Vasilios Plakandaras, 2019. "Efficiency in BRICS Currency Markets Using Long-Spans of Data: Evidence from Model-Free Tests of Directional Predictability," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(1), pages 152-165.
    9. Biswabhusan Bhuyan & Subhamitra Patra & Ranjan Kumar Bhuian, 2020. "Market Adaptability and Evolving Predictability of Stock Returns: An Evidence from India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(4), pages 605-619, December.
    10. Jasman Tuyon & Zamri Ahmada, 2016. "Behavioural finance perspectives on Malaysian stock market efficiency," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 16(1), pages 43-61, March.
    11. Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2019. "Oil and pump prices: Is there any asymmetry in the Greek oil downstream sector?," MPRA Paper 95407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hernandez, Jose Areola & Hanif, Waqas & Kayani, Ghulam Mujtaba, 2018. "Intraday return inefficiency and long memory in the volatilities of forex markets and the role of trading volume," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 433-450.
    13. Kei-Ichiro Inaba, 2020. "A global look into stock market comovements," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(3), pages 517-555, August.
    14. Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2020. "Oil and pump prices: Testing their asymmetric relationship in a robust way," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. de Resende, Charlene C. & Pereira, Adriano C.M. & Cardoso, Rodrigo T.N. & de Magalhães, A.R. Bosco, 2017. "Investigating market efficiency through a forecasting model based on differential equations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 474(C), pages 199-212.
    16. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Karim, Sitara & Farid, Saqib & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2022. "Comparing the asymmetric efficiency of dirty and clean energy markets pre and during COVID-19," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 548-562.
    17. Abiola Ayopo BABAJIDE & Funso Abiodun OKUNLOLA & Adedoyin Isola LAWAL & Victoria Bosede AKINJARE & Bukola Bose LAWAL-ADEDOYIN, 2021. "Financial Inclusion: Implication on Per Capita Income in Nigeria," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(8), pages 603-617, August.
    18. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Farid, Saqib & Ferrer, Román & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2021. "Comparative efficiency of green and conventional bonds pre- and during COVID-19: An asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    19. Chang, Hao-Wen & Chiang, Yi-Chein & Ke, Mei-Chu & Wang, Ming-Hui & Nguyen, Tien-Trung, 2023. "Market efficiency of Asian stock markets during the financial crisis and non-financial crisis periods," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 312-329.
    20. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Market Efficiency; Fourier analysis; Unit root tests; Energy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2018-06-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.