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On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues

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Listed:
  • Effie Amanatidou
  • Maurits Butter
  • Vicente Carabias
  • Totti Könnölä
  • Miriam Leis
  • Ozcan Saritas
  • Petra Schaper-Rinkel
  • Victor van Rij

Abstract

Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action which will help to better prepare policy- and decision-makers in today's complex and inter-dependent environments. This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues project. A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation the needs of policy-makers if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated. This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time, there are certain issues which characterise horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers. Copyright The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Effie Amanatidou & Maurits Butter & Vicente Carabias & Totti Könnölä & Miriam Leis & Ozcan Saritas & Petra Schaper-Rinkel & Victor van Rij, 2012. "On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 208-221, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:scippl:v:39:y:2012:i:2:p:208-221
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    Cited by:

    1. Spaniol, Matthew J. & Rowland, Nicholas J., 2022. "Business ecosystems and the view from the future: The use of corporate foresight by stakeholders of the Ro-Ro shipping ecosystem in the Baltic Sea Region," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    2. Gill Ringland, 2013. "Future as Unexplored Domain: Ñonnecting Foresight to the Making Strategic Decisions," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 7(4), pages 60-69.
    3. Jaroonvanichkul, Suppapol, 2023. "Technology foresight in communications regulation," 32nd European Regional ITS Conference, Madrid 2023: Realising the digital decade in the European Union – Easier said than done? 277977, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    4. Amber Geurts & Ralph Gutknecht & Philine Warnke & Arjen Goetheer & Elna Schirrmeister & Babette Bakker & Svetlana Meissner, 2022. "New perspectives for data‐supported foresight: The hybrid AI‐expert approach," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    5. Zsuzsanna Géring & Gábor Király & Réka Tamássy, 2021. "Are you a newcomer to horizon scanning? A few decision points and methodological reflections on the process," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    6. Flick, Catherine & Zamani, Efpraxia D. & Stahl, Bernd Carsten & Brem, Alexander, 2020. "The future of ICT for health and ageing: Unveiling ethical and social issues through horizon scanning foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    7. Pavel Bakhtin & Ozcan Saritas & Alexander Chulok & Ilya Kuzminov & Anton Timofeev, 2017. "Trend monitoring for linking science and strategy," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(3), pages 2059-2075, June.
    8. Lisa A. Pace & Kristian Borch & Alan Deidun, 2023. "Bridging Knowledge Gaps towards 2030: The Use of Foresight for the Strategic Management of a Sustainable Blue Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, June.
    9. Beatriz Barros & Ana Fernández-Zubieta & Raul Fidalgo-Merino & Francisco Triguero, 2018. "Scientific knowledge percolation process and social impact: A case study on the biotechnology and microbiology perceptions on Twitter," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(6), pages 804-814.
    10. Julia V. Ponomareva & Anna V. Sokolova, 2015. "The Identification of Weak Signals and Wild Cards in Foresight Methodology: Stages and Methods," HSE Working papers WP BRP 46/STI/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Pascale Lehoux & Hudson Pacifico Silva & Renata Pozelli Sabio & Federico Roncarolo, 2018. "The Unexplored Contribution of Responsible Innovation in Health to Sustainable Development Goals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, November.
    12. Kayser, Victoria & Blind, Knut, 2017. "Extending the knowledge base of foresight: The contribution of text mining," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 208-215.
    13. Solène Guenat & Phil Purnell & Zoe G. Davies & Maximilian Nawrath & Lindsay C. Stringer & Giridhara Rathnaiah Babu & Muniyandi Balasubramanian & Erica E. F. Ballantyne & Bhuvana Kolar Bylappa & Bei Ch, 2022. "Meeting sustainable development goals via robotics and autonomous systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Rowe, Emily & Wright, George & Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Enhancing horizon scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: Analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important ‘weak signals’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 224-235.
    15. Willis, Graham & Cave, Siôn & Kunc, Martin, 2018. "Strategic workforce planning in healthcare: A multi-methodology approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 250-263.
    16. Ozcan Saritas & Dirk Meissner & Alexander Sokolov, 2019. "A Transition Management Roadmap for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs)," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(3), pages 1183-1203, September.
    17. Roger C. Brackin & Michael J. Jackson & Andrew Leyshon & Jeremy G. Morley & Sarah Jewitt, 2022. "Generating Indicators of Disruptive Innovation Using Big Data," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-24, November.
    18. Henrietta E. M. George-Williams & Dexter V. L. Hunt & Christopher D. F. Rogers, 2024. "Foresight for Sustainable Water Futures in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-19, October.
    19. Matthew J. Spaniol & Matthew J. Evans & Kristian Tranekær & Nicholas J. Rowland & Nick P. Atkinson, 2021. "Still fooled by randomness, twenty years later?," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
    20. Pauliina Krigsholm & Kirsikka Riekkinen, 2019. "Applying Text Mining for Identifying Future Signals of Land Administration," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-15, November.
    21. Bernardino Romano & Lorena Fiorini & Alessandro Marucci, 2019. "Italy without Urban ‘Sprinkling’. A Uchronia for a Country that Needs a Retrofit of Its Urban and Landscape Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-16, June.
    22. Anastasios Tsakalidis & Konstantinos Gkoumas & Monica Grosso & Ferenc Pekár, 2020. "TRIMIS: Modular Development of an Integrated Policy-Support Tool for Forward-Oriented Transport Research and Innovation Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-21, December.
    23. Moro, Alberto & Boelman, Elisa & Joanny, Geraldine & Garcia, Juan Lopez, 2018. "A bibliometric-based technique to identify emerging photovoltaic technologies in a comparative assessment with expert review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 407-416.
    24. Kim, Hyunuk & Ahn, Sang-Jin & Jung, Woo-Sung, 2019. "Horizon scanning in policy research database with a probabilistic topic model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 588-594.
    25. Trumbo, Jennifer L. & Tonn, Bruce E., 2016. "Biofuels: A sustainable choice for the United States' energy future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 147-161.

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