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Using models of innovation diffusion to forecast market success: a practitioners' guide

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  • Alexander Frenzel
  • Hariolf Grupp

Abstract

The paper reviews models of innovation diffusion as the basis for a methodology to analyse business cases for new products and processes. The review is based on a categorization of the models' hypotheses and assumptions. The proposed analytical approach has three steps: First, qualitative research into the innovation's target market is structured along the hypotheses of the diffusion models. Based on this hypotheses-driven assessment of the case study, families of diffusion models are identified that address the characteristics of the case. Third, the models can be applied to the business cases for further quantitative analysis and forecasting. The paper outlines further developments of diffusion models. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Frenzel & Hariolf Grupp, 2009. "Using models of innovation diffusion to forecast market success: a practitioners' guide," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 39-50, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rseval:v:18:y:2009:i:1:p:39-50
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.3152/095820209X393172
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    Cited by:

    1. Onisor Lucian-Florin, 2012. "Marketing And Innovation: Young People'S Attitude Towards New Products," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 1179-1186, July.
    2. Mohammed Kafaji, 2018. "To What Extent do Quality of Education and Quality of Research Influence the Adoption of ICT by Companies?," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-18, February.

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