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Evaluating a participative foresight process: ‘Futur - the German research dialogue’

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  • Kerstin Cuhls
  • Luke Georghiou

Abstract

The paper describes the design and implementation of an evaluation of a participative foresight process, Futur — the German Research Dialogue. Futur aims to enrich the process of strategy development for research priorities by involving a broad array of actors in a combination of different instruments to develop ‘lead visions’. The process of a strategic intelligence exercise that combined elements of ex ante evaluation, technology assessment and foresight is summarised, along with key findings from the evaluation. The modified peer review approach employed to evaluate Futur was structured along lines of accountability to support a continuation decision and also had a learning orientation. This evaluation approach is contrasted with the ambitions of the process being evaluated, notably the emphasis upon stakeholder participation and transparency. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerstin Cuhls & Luke Georghiou, 2004. "Evaluating a participative foresight process: ‘Futur - the German research dialogue’," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 143-153, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rseval:v:13:y:2004:i:3:p:143-153
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.3152/147154404781776437
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    Cited by:

    1. Ekaterina Makarova & Anna Sokolova, 2012. "Foresight Evaluation: Lessons from Project Management," HSE Working papers WP BRP 01/MAN/2012, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Attila Havas & Doris Schartinger & Matthias Weber, 2010. "The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 91-104, June.
    3. Maxim A. Afanasyev & Mario Cervantes & Dirk Meissner, 2014. "Towards FET Concept: Pathway To Evaluation Of Foresight Effectiveness, Efficiency And Validity," HSE Working papers WP BRP 31/STI/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Rhisiart, Martin & Jones-Evans, Dylan, 2016. "The impact of foresight on entrepreneurship: The Wales 2010 case study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 112-119.
    5. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Mauksch, Stefanie & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Gordon, Theodore J., 2020. "Who is an expert for foresight? A review of identification methods," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

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