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Macroeconomic Attention and Announcement Risk Premia

Author

Listed:
  • Adlai Fisher
  • Charles Martineau
  • Jinfei Sheng

Abstract

We construct macroeconomic attention indexes (MAI), which are new measures of attention to different macroeconomic risks, including unemployment and monetary policy. Individual MAI tend to increase around related announcements and following changes in related fundamentals. Further, bad news raises attention more than good news. For unemployment and FOMC, attention predicts announcement risk premiums and implied volatility changes with large economic magnitudes. Our findings support theories of endogenous attention and announcement risk premiums, while demonstrating future research directions, including that announcements can raise new concerns. Macroeconomic announcements are important not only for contents and timing but also for attention.Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Suggested Citation

  • Adlai Fisher & Charles Martineau & Jinfei Sheng, 2022. "Macroeconomic Attention and Announcement Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5057-5093.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:35:y:2022:i:11:p:5057-5093.
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    6. Ma, Feng & Lu, Xinjie & Liu, Jia & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Macroeconomic attention and stock market return predictability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Ashwin, Julian, 2024. "Financial news media and volatility: Is there more to newspapers than news?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Zeng, Qing & Cao, Jiawei & Guo, Yangli & Dong, Dayong, 2023. "The macroeconomic attention index: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Cheema, Arbab K. & Eshraghi, Arman & Wang, Qingwei, 2023. "Macroeconomic news and price synchronicity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 390-412.
    10. Du, Xiuli & Ao, Zhu & Chai, Yiwei & Ge, Shilong, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, investor attention and post-earnings announcement drift," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. Lv, Wendai & Qi, Jipeng, 2022. "Stock market return predictability: A combination forecast perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Ma, Tian & Wang, Wanwan & Chen, Yu, 2023. "Attention is all you need: An interpretable transformer-based asset allocation approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    13. Lu, Fei & Ma, Feng & Guo, Qiang, 2023. "Less is more? New evidence from stock market volatility predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Luo, Tao & Sun, Huaping & Zhang, Lixia & Bai, Jiancheng, 2024. "Do the dynamics of macroeconomic attention drive the yen/dollar exchange market volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 597-611.
    15. Fameliti Stavroula & Skintzi Vasiliki, 2024. "Macroeconomic attention and commodity market volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(5), pages 1967-2007, November.
    16. Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Forecasting Realized US Stock Market Volatility: Is there a Role for Economic Policy Uncertainty?," Working Papers 202408, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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    18. Fu, Tong & Huang, Dasen & Feng, Lingbing & Tang, Xiaoping, 2024. "More is better? The impact of predictor choice on the INE oil futures volatility forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    19. Martineau, Charles & Mondria, Jordi, 2022. "News Selection and Asset Pricing Implications," SocArXiv ame2f, Center for Open Science.

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    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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