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The Total Return and Risk to Residential Real Estate
[House prices and fundamentals: 355 years of evidence]

Author

Listed:
  • Piet Eichholtz
  • Matthijs Korevaar
  • Thies Lindenthal
  • Ronan Tallec
  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abstract

We estimate total returns to rental housing by studying over 170,000 hand-collected archival observations of prices and rents for individual houses in Paris (1809–1943) and Amsterdam (1900–1979). The annualized real total return, net of costs and taxes, is 4.0% for Paris and 4.8% for Amsterdam and entirely comes from rental yields. Our returns weakly correlate with the implied returns in Jordà et al. (2019) and are substantially lower. We decompose total return risk at the individual asset level and find that yield risk becomes an increasingly important component of property-level risk for longer investment horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Piet Eichholtz & Matthijs Korevaar & Thies Lindenthal & Ronan Tallec & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "The Total Return and Risk to Residential Real Estate [House prices and fundamentals: 355 years of evidence]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3608-3646.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:34:y:2021:i:8:p:3608-3646.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhab042
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rongda Chen & Jingjing Yu & Chenglu Jin & Xinyang Chen & Liu Yang & Shuonan Zhang, 2024. "Political connection and credit risk of real estate enterprises: evidence from stock market," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Lange, Rutger-Jan & Teulings, Coen N., 2024. "Irreversible investment under predictable growth: Why land stays vacant when housing demand is booming," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    3. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
    4. Aleksandar Andonov & Roman Kräussl & Joshua Rauh & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Institutional Investors and Infrastructure Investing [Pension fund asset allocation and liability discount rates]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3880-3934.
    5. Ella Getz Wold & Knut Are Aastveit & Eirik Eylands Brandsaas & Ragnar Enger Juelsrud & Gisle James Natvik, 2024. "The housing channel of intergenerational wealth persistence," Working Papers 06/2024, Centre for Household Finance and Macroeconomic Research (HOFIMAR), BI Norwegian Business School.
    6. Matteo Benetton & Marianna Kudlyak & John Mondragon, 2022. "Dynastic Home Equity," Working Paper Series 2022-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Fehrle, Daniel & Heiberger, Christopher, 2024. "The return on everything and the business cycle in production economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Laurens Swinkels, 2023. "Empirical evidence on the ownership and liquidity of real estate tokens," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, December.
    9. Zhandos Ybrayev & Yernur Orakbayev & Askar Utarbayev, 2024. "Yield Curves for Main Street: Housing and financial capital returns in a developing economy," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(1), pages 165-182, January.
    10. Francisco Amaral & Martin Dohmen & Sebastian Kohl & Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Superstar Returns," Working Papers hal-03881493, HAL.
    11. Claudio Borio & Øyvind Eitrheim & Marc Flandreau & Clemens Jobst & Jan F Qvigstad & Ryland Thomas, 2022. "Historical monetary and financial statistics for policymakers: towards a unified framework," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 127.
    12. Jonathan D. Rose, 2022. "Reassessing the magnitude of housing price declines and the use of leverage in the Depressions of the 1890s and 1930s," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 907-930, December.
    13. Gram, Dennis & Karapanagiotis, Pantelis & Krzyzanowski, Jan & Liebald, Marius & Walz, Uwe, 2021. "An extensible model for historical financial data with an application to German company and stock market data," SAFE Working Paper Series 300, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    14. Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Qizhou Xiong, 2021. "Housing Yields," Working Papers 2021:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2021.
    15. Francke, Marc & Korevaar, Matthijs, 2021. "Housing markets in a pandemic: Evidence from historical outbreaks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    16. Korevaar, Matthijs, 2023. "Reaching for yield and the housing market: Evidence from 18th-century Amsterdam," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 273-296.
    17. Ronan C. Lyons & Allison Shertzer & Rowena Gray & David N. Agorastos, 2024. "The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890-2006," NBER Working Papers 32593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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