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Asset Pricing When Traders Sell Extreme Winners and Losers

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  • Li An

Abstract

This study investigates the asset pricing implications of a newly documented refinement of the disposition effect, characterized by investors being more likely to sell a security when the magnitude of their gains or losses on it increases. I find that stocks with both large unrealized gains and large unrealized losses outperform others in the following month (trading strategy monthly alpha = 0.5–1%, Sharpe ratio = 1.5). This supports the conjecture that these stocks experience higher selling pressure, leading to lower current prices and higher future returns. Overall, this study provides new evidence that investors' trading behavior can aggregate to affect equilibrium price dynamics. Received March 10, 2014; accepted August 31, 2015 by Editor David Hirshleifer.

Suggested Citation

  • Li An, 2016. "Asset Pricing When Traders Sell Extreme Winners and Losers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 823-861.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:29:y:2016:i:3:p:823-861.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhv060
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    Cited by:

    1. Bradrania, Reza & Wu, Winston, 2023. "Foreign institutions, local investors and momentum trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 40-64.
    2. Ji Cao & Marc Oliver Rieger & Lei Zhao, 2019. "Safety First, Loss Probability, and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2019-02, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    3. Mohamed S. Ahmed & John A. Doukas, 2021. "Revisiting disposition effect and momentum: a quantile regression perspective," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1087-1128, April.
    4. Doojin Ryu & Doowon Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2021. "The impact of net buying pressure on index options prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 27-45, January.
    5. Switzer, Lorne N. & Tahaoglu, Cagdas & Zhao, Yun, 2017. "Volatility measures as predictors of extreme returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-10.
    6. Choi, Darwin, 2019. "Disposition sales and stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 19-36.
    7. Baltzer, Markus & Jank, Stephan & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2019. "Who trades on momentum?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 56-74.
    8. An, Li & Argyle, Bronson, 2021. "Overselling winners and losers: How mutual fund managers' trading behavior affects asset prices," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    9. Bouteska, Ahmed & Kabir Hassan, M. & Gider, Zeynullah & Bataineh, Hassan, 2024. "The role of investor sentiment and market belief in forecasting V-shaped disposition effect: Evidence from a Bayesian learning process with DSSW model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Wang, Huijun & Yan, Jinghua & Yu, Jianfeng, 2017. "Reference-dependent preferences and the risk–return trade-off," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 395-414.
    11. Alasdair Brown & Fuyu Yang, 2017. "Salience and the Disposition Effect: Evidence from the Introduction of “Cash‐Outs” in Betting Markets," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(4), pages 1052-1073, April.
    12. Goh, Jihoon & Jeong, Giho & Kang, Jangkoo, 2022. "The reference dependency of short-term reversal," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 195-211.
    13. Bergsma, Kelley & Tayal, Jitendra, 2020. "Quarterly earnings announcements and intra-industry information transfer from the Pacific to the Atlantic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Li An & Huijun Wang & Jian Wang & Jianfeng Yu, 2020. "Lottery-Related Anomalies: The Role of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 473-501, January.
    15. Cao, Ji & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Zhao, Lei, 2023. "Safety first, loss probability, and the cross section of expected stock returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 345-369.
    16. Ahn, Yongkil, 2024. "Optimal stopping decisions and the disposition effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    17. Min Dai & Yipeng Jiang & Hong Liu & Jing Xu, 2023. "A Rational Theory for Disposition Effects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 131-157, January.
    18. Massa, Massimo & li, jennifer & Zhang, Hong, 2016. "Culture vs. Bias: Can Social Trust Mitigate the Disposition Effect?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11474, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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