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State-Dependent Variations in the Expected Illiquidity Premium

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Listed:
  • Jeewon Jang
  • Jangkoo Kang
  • Changjun Lee

Abstract

Recent evidence on state-dependent variations in market liquidity suggests strong variations in the illiquidity premium across economic states. Adopting a two-state Markov switching model, we find that, while illiquid stocks are affected more by economic conditions than liquid ones are during recessions, the differences in expected returns are relatively small during expansions. Therefore, the expected illiquidity premium displays strong state-dependent variations that are countercyclical. We show that the state of a high illiquidity premium is closely associated with periods of real economic recessions, market declines, and high volatility, which coincides with major events of liquidity dry-up and high liquidity commonality.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeewon Jang & Jangkoo Kang & Changjun Lee, 2017. "State-Dependent Variations in the Expected Illiquidity Premium," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2277-2314.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:21:y:2017:i:6:p:2277-2314.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfw053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    2. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    3. Vayanos, Dimitri, 2004. "Flight to quality, flight to liquidity, and the pricing of risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 456, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Cheng Chen & Chia-Li Tai & Yi-Sheng Liu, 2020. "Illiquidity Premium and Monetary Conditions in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Examination of Taiwan Stock Markets," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 109-117.
    2. Hou, Yuting & Jin, Xiu, 2024. "Downside liquidity risk premium: From the perspective of higher moment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    3. Szymon Stereńczak, 2020. "State-Dependent Stock Liquidity Premium: The Case of the Warsaw Stock Exchange," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Goh, Jihoon & Jeong, Giho & Kang, Jangkoo, 2022. "The reference dependency of short-term reversal," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 195-211.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Illiquidity premium; Markov switching model; Economic states; Stock market liquidity; Business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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