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Takeover Timing, Implementation Uncertainty, and Embedded Divestment Options

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  • Luis Alvarez
  • Rune Stenbacka

Abstract

We design a compound real options model, which determines the timing of takeovers and characterizes the distribution of the associated surplus. We delineate a relation between the bargaining power of the acquiring firm and the takeover incentives. The takeover threshold is decreasing as a function of the expected primary takeover gain and the embedded divestment gain. Decreased implementation uncertainty stimulates takeover activity. This uncertainty concerns the delay until either primary takeover synergies or subsequent divestment gains are realized. We demonstrate how the relation between volatility and takeover timing depends on the functional form of the profit flow with implementation uncertainty. Copyright Oxford University Press 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Alvarez & Rune Stenbacka, 2006. "Takeover Timing, Implementation Uncertainty, and Embedded Divestment Options," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 417-441, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:10:y:2006:i:3:p:417-441
    DOI: 10.1007/s10679-006-9002-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Guthrie, Graeme & Hobbs, Cameron, 2021. "How managerial ownership and the market for corporate control can improve investment timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2008. "Optimal and strategic timing of mergers and acquisitions motivated by synergies and risk diversification," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1701-1720, May.
    3. Larkin, Yelena & Lyandres, Evgeny, 2019. "Inefficient mergers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Paulo J. Pereira & Artur Rodrigues, 2015. "A theory on merger timing and announcement returns," NIPE Working Papers 13/2015, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    5. U. Weitzel & S. Rosenkranz, 2007. "Bargaining in Mergers and Termination Fees," Working Papers 07-06, Utrecht School of Economics.
    6. Lukas, Elmar & Pereira, Paulo J. & Rodrigues, Artur, 2019. "Designing optimal M&A strategies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-20.
    7. Ebina, Takeshi & Kumakura, Yuya & Nishide, Katsumasa, 2022. "Hostile takeovers or friendly mergers? Real options analysis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2008. "Strategic merger waves: A theory of musical chairs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 1-26, May.
    9. Pereira, Paulo J. & Rodrigues, Artur, 2019. "Bargaining merger terms and the effect on the announcement returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 510-521.
    10. Yanzhao Li & Ju-e Guo & Shaolong Sun & Yongwu Li, 2022. "How time-inconsistent preferences influence venture capital exit decisions? A new perspective for grandstanding," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    11. Dockner, Engelbert J. & Hartl, Richard F. & Kort, Peter M., 2019. "Dynamic capital structure choice and investment timing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 70-80.
    12. Pires, Marco & Pereira, Paulo J., 2020. "Leverage, premium and timing in corporate acquisitions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    13. Guthrie, Graeme, 2021. "A dynamic model of managerial entrenchment and the positive incentives it creates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    14. Lukas, Elmar & Pereira, Paulo J. & Rodrigues, Artur, 2023. "On the determinants of the dynamic choice between mergers and tender offers," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Yanzhao Li & Ju'e Guo & Yongwu Li & Xu Zhang, 2021. "Optimal exit decision of venture capital under time-inconsistent preferences," Papers 2103.11557, arXiv.org.
    16. Lukas, Elmar & Welling, Andreas, 2012. "Negotiating M&As under uncertainty: The influence of managerial flexibility on the first-mover advantage," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 29-35.
    17. Banerjee, Shantanu & Güçbilmez, Ufuk & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2014. "Optimal exercise of jointly held real options: A Nash bargaining approach with value diversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(2), pages 565-578.

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