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Trend, Weather Variables, and the Distribution of U.S. Corn Yields

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  • Michael S. Kaylen
  • Suffyanu S. Koroma

Abstract

A Kalman filter algorithm and 1895–1988 data were used to estimate a U.S. corn yield model which incorporates a stochastic trend term and monthly weather indices. Yield growth peaked in 1964, with the annual increase now only 1.3 bushels per year. The empirical distribution of 1989 corn yield is derived and found to be skewed. The mean yield for 1989 was close to final USDA estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael S. Kaylen & Suffyanu S. Koroma, 1991. "Trend, Weather Variables, and the Distribution of U.S. Corn Yields," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 249-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revage:v:13:y:1991:i:2:p:249-258.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1349641
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    Cited by:

    1. Shen, Zhiwei, 2016. "Adaptive local parametric estimation of crop yields: implication for crop insurance ratemaking," 156th Seminar, October 4, 2016, Wageningen, The Netherlands 249984, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Agarwal, Sandip Kumar, 2017. "Subjective beliefs and decision making under uncertainty in the field," ISU General Staff Papers 201701010800006248, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Myers, Robert J. & Jayne, Thomas S., 1997. "Regime shifts and technology diffusion in crop yield growth paths with an application to maize yields in Zimbabwe," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(3), pages 1-19.
    4. Paolo Agnolucci & Vincenzo De Lipsis, 2020. "Long-run trend in agricultural yield and climatic factors in Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 385-405, April.
    5. Heng Chen & Jennifer K. Ryan, 2023. "Optimal specialty crop planning policies with yield learning and forward contract," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(2), pages 359-378, February.

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