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Abnormal Returns in Livestock Futures Prices Around USDA Inventory Report Releases

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  • Ted Schroeder
  • Joanne Blair
  • James Mintert

Abstract

This study examines the responsiveness of futures market prices for live hogs, live cattle, and feeder cattle to economic information contained in the USDA livestock inventory reports. Event study methodology is employed to test for persistent biases in market price changes around inventory report release dates. Few significant abnormal returns are detected in livestock futures markets following the quarterly inventory report releases, suggesting that the reports do not exert a persistent downward or upward influence on futures prices. Increases in return variability around report releases suggest that the reports provide new information to the market. Sustained high variability in the live hog futures market relative to the cattle markets following report releases suggests that less information is available for the hog market.

Suggested Citation

  • Ted Schroeder & Joanne Blair & James Mintert, 1990. "Abnormal Returns in Livestock Futures Prices Around USDA Inventory Report Releases," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 12(2), pages 293-304.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revage:v:12:y:1990:i:2:p:293-304.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/aepp/12.2.293
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Evans, Kevin J. & Streeter, Deborah H. & Hudson, Michael A., 1992. "An Integrated Approach to Modeling Price Volatility in the Live Cattle Futures Market," Staff Papers 121352, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    2. Paul M. Patterson & B. Wade Brorsen, 1993. "USDA Export Sales Report: Is It News?," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 15(2), pages 367-378.
    3. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
    4. Olga Isengildina Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin, 2024. "What do we know about the value and market impact of the US Department of Agriculture reports?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 698-736, June.
    5. Parcell, Joseph L. & Kalaitzandonakes, Nicholas G., 2001. "The Response Of Corn Futures Markets To Agro-Biotechnology News," 2001 Annual Meeting, July 8-11, 2001, Logan, Utah 36124, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. McKenzie, Andrew M. & Thomsen, Michael R., 2001. "The Effect Of E. Coli O157:H7 On Beef Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Parcell, Joseph L., 1997. "The Effect of USDA Cattle on Feed Reports on Feeder Cattle Futures Prices," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\ Sparks, Nevada 35751, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Colling, Phil L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Zulauf, Carl R., 1991. "The Reaction Of Livestock Futures Prices To New Information," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271203, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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