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COVID-19 and the Cross-Section of Equity Returns: Impact and Transmission

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Bretscher
  • Alex Hsu
  • Peter Simasek
  • Andrea Tamoni
  • Nikolai Roussanov

Abstract

Using the first reported case of COVID-19 in a given U.S. county as the event day, we find that firms headquartered in an affected county experience, on average, a 27-bps lower return in the 10-day post-event window. This negative effect nearly doubles in magnitude for firms in counties with a higher infection rate (−50 bps). We test a number of transmission channels. Firms belonging to labor-intensive industries and those located in counties with a large mobility decline have worse stock performance. Firms sensitive to COVID-19-induced uncertainty also exhibit more negative returns. Finally, more negative stock returns are associated with downward revisions in earnings forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Peter Simasek & Andrea Tamoni & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "COVID-19 and the Cross-Section of Equity Returns: Impact and Transmission," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 705-741.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:10:y::i:4:p:705-741.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rapstu/raaa017
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Spiegel & Heather Tookes, 2021. "Business Restrictions and COVID-19 Fatalities [The immediate effect of COVID-19 policies on social distancing behavior in the United States]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5266-5308.
    2. Yang, Jianlei & Yang, Chunpeng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, COVID-19 lockdown, and firm-level volatility: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Lars Peter Hansen, 0. "Repercussions of Pandemics on Markets and Policy," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 569-573.
    4. Borri, Nicola & Giorgio, Giorgio di, 2022. "Systemic risk and the COVID challenge in the european banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Bae, Kee-Hong & El Ghoul, Sadok & Gong, Zhaoran (Jason) & Guedhami, Omrane, 2021. "Does CSR matter in times of crisis? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Ducret, Romain, 2021. "Investors' perception of business group membership during an economic crisis : Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," FSES Working Papers 524, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    7. Dusko Ursic & Andrej Smogavc Cestar, 2022. "Crisis Management and CSR in Slovenian Companies: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-16, February.
    8. Laeven, Luc, 2022. "Pandemics, intermediate goods, and corporate valuation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    9. John, Kose & Li, Jingrui, 2021. "COVID-19, volatility dynamics, and sentiment trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Bollerslev, Tim & Patton, Andrew J. & Zhang, Haozhe, 2022. "Equity clusters through the lens of realized semicorrelations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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