IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v68y2021ics0927538x21001049.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic policy uncertainty, COVID-19 lockdown, and firm-level volatility: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Jianlei
  • Yang, Chunpeng

Abstract

To explain how firm-level volatility responds to the COVID-19 pandemic shock through the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) channel, we examine the two-dimension variations of stock volatility under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and two types of EPU: measured by comprehensive newspapers news and financial newspapers news. The results, based on a difference in difference (DID) estimation, suggest a significant additional increase in the volatility of stocks with a higher degree of sensitivity to EPU after the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. Moreover, this effect is most pronounced for consumer, less-profitable, and high leverage stocks. Further multi-period analyses indicate that the impact of EPU associated with pandemic takes effect at the time of lockdown announcement and persist for a short-term trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Jianlei & Yang, Chunpeng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, COVID-19 lockdown, and firm-level volatility: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:68:y:2021:i:c:s0927538x21001049
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101597
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X21001049
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101597?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Cai, Xiqian & Lu, Yi & Wu, Mingqin & Yu, Linhui, 2016. "Does environmental regulation drive away inbound foreign direct investment? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 73-85.
    3. Dimson, Elroy & Marsh, Paul, 1990. "Volatility forecasting without data-snooping," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2-3), pages 399-421, August.
    4. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2015. "Editor's Choice The Sum of All FEARS Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 1-32.
    5. Pinglin He & Yulong Sun & Ying Zhang & Tao Li, 2020. "COVID–19’s Impact on Stock Prices Across Different Sectors—An Event Study Based on the Chinese Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2198-2212, August.
    6. Zhang, Dayong & Hu, Min & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    7. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    8. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    9. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    10. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    11. Ricardo J Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2021. "A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs: Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a “COVID-19” Shock [Financial intermediaries and the cross-section of asset returns]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5522-5580.
    12. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    13. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Ralph S J Koijen & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 574-597.
    14. Hassan, Tarek & Hollander, Stephan & van Lent, Laurence & Schwedeler, Markus & Tahoun, Ahmed, 2020. "Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1," CEPR Discussion Papers 14573, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    16. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost & Marco C. Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin, 2020. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 26945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    18. Lee, Wayne Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Indro, Daniel C., 2002. "Stock market volatility, excess returns, and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2277-2299.
    19. Liu, Li & Zhang, Tao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 99-105.
    20. Donadelli, Michael & Kizys, Renatas & Riedel, Max, 2017. "Dangerous infectious diseases: Bad news for Main Street, good news for Wall Street?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 84-103.
    21. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    22. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Peter Simasek & Andrea Tamoni & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "COVID-19 and the Cross-Section of Equity Returns: Impact and Transmission," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 705-741.
    23. Xiaolin Huo & Zhigang Qiu, 2020. "How does China’s stock market react to the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown?," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 436-461, October.
    24. Waisman, Maya & Ye, Pengfei & Zhu, Yun, 2015. "The effect of political uncertainty on the cost of corporate debt," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 106-117.
    25. Li, Tao & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Xuehua & Zhang, Yaojie, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Chinese stock market volatility: Novel evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 24-33.
    26. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2020. "Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Junxin & Zhang, Xinhua, 2022. "Time-frequency connectedness and cross-quantile dependence between crude oil, Chinese commodity market, stock market and investor sentiment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    2. Zhang, Pengcheng & Xu, Kunpeng & Qi, Jiayin, 2023. "The impact of regulation on cryptocurrency market volatility in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic — evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-246.
    3. Yang, Jianlei, 2023. "Financial stabilization policy, market sentiment, and stock market returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Ritika Jain & Rajnish Kumar, 2023. "Effect of COVID‐19 Lockdown on the Profitability of Firms in India," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 42(1), pages 54-71, March.
    5. Bedford, Anna & Bugeja, Martin & Ghannam, Samir & Jeganathan, Davina & Ma, Nelson, 2023. "Were CEO pay cuts during the COVID-19 pandemic merely symbolic? Shareholders' reaction and outrage," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Yihao Tian & Lijin Ding & Bin Yang & Feng Peng, 2022. "The Effects of De-Capacity Policy on Steel and Coal Firms’ Profitability: Evidence from China’s Listed Companies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Wang, Kai-Hua & Zhao, Yan-Xin & Su, Yun Hsuan & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "Energy security and CO2 emissions: New evidence from time-varying and quantile-varying aspects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    8. Klayme, Tania & Gokmenoglu, Korhan K. & Rustamov, Bezhan, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, COVID-19 and corporate investment: Evidence from the gold mining industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    9. Qiuyun Wang & Lu Liu, 2022. "Pandemic or panic? A firm-level study on the psychological and industrial impacts of COVID-19 on the Chinese stock market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-38, December.
    10. Deev, Oleg & Plíhal, Tomáš, 2022. "How to calm down the markets? The effects of COVID-19 economic policy responses on financial market uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Cao, Yuqiang & Li, Chenglin & Liu, Xinghe & Lu, Meiting & Shan, Yaowen, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and debt allocation within business groups," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    12. Zhang, Pengcheng & Kong, Deli & Xu, Kunpeng & Qi, Jiayin, 2024. "Global economic policy uncertainty and the stability of cryptocurrency returns: The role of liquidity volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    13. C. Biliotti & F. J. Bargagli-Stoffi & N. Fraccaroli & M. Puliga & M. Riccaboni, 2022. "Breaking Down the Lockdown: The Causal Effects of Stay-At-Home Mandates on Uncertainty and Sentiments During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Papers 2212.01705, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    14. Rahman, Md Lutfur & Al Mamun, Mohammed Abdullah, 2021. "How resilient are the Asia Pacific financial markets against a global pandemic?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Huiying & Ding, Zhihua & Lv, Tao & Wang, Xu & Wang, Deqing, 2022. "When are the effects of economic policy uncertainty on oil–stock correlations larger? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    2. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "The impact and role of COVID-19 uncertainty: A global industry analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2023. "Which COVID-19 information really impacts stock markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Prelorentzos, Arsenios-Georgios N. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Xidonas, Panos & Goutte, Stephane & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2024. "Introducing the GVAR-GARCH model: Evidence from financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    6. Jialei Jiang & Eun-Mi Park & Seong-Taek Park, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 on Economic Sustainability—A Case Study of Fluctuation in Stock Prices for China and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Wing-Keung Wong, 2021. "Sustainability of Global Economic Policy and Stock Market Returns in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    8. Aharon, David Y. & Siev, Smadar, 2021. "COVID-19, government interventions and emerging capital markets performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Frank Obenpong Kwabi & Samuel Owusu-Manu & Agyenim Boateng & Ernest-Bruno Ezeani & Min Du, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and cost of capital: the mediating effects of foreign equity portfolio flow," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 457-481, August.
    10. Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Examining the relationship between policy uncertainty and market uncertainty across the G7," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Donadelli, Michael & Gufler, Ivan & Pellizzari, Paolo, 2020. "The macro and asset pricing implications of rising Italian uncertainty: Evidence from a novel news-based macroeconomic policy uncertainty index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    12. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Sensitivity of US equity returns to economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    13. Bakhtiar Javaheri & Fateh habibi & Ramin Amani, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and the US stock market trading: non-ARDL evidence," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cost of debt financing: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    15. Tihana Škrinjarić & Zrinka Orlović, 2020. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Spillovers: Case of Selected CEE Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-33, July.
    16. Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Kijkasiwat, Ploypailin & Arunachalam, Murugesh & Hammami, Helmi, 2021. "Covid-19 health policy intervention and volatility of Asian capital markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    17. Huang, Wei-Ling & Lin, Wen-Yuan & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2020. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Tanveer Bagh & Abdul Waheed & Muhammad Asif Khan & Mirza Muhammad Naseer, 2023. "Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on China’s Stock Price Index: A Comprehensive Analysis Using Wavelet Coherence Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    19. Yang, Tianle & Zhou, Fangxing & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang & Zhou, Shirong, 2023. "Fluctuation in the global oil market, stock market volatility, and economic policy uncertainty: A study of the US and China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 377-387.
    20. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Lorenzo Neri & Antonella Russo, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 795-845, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:68:y:2021:i:c:s0927538x21001049. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.