Seeing Red and Blue: Assessing How Americans Understand Geographic Polarization, Secession, and the Value of Federalism

This article examines how public perceptions about the divide between blue and red states shape attitudes about secession in the United States. Through a nationally representative survey of the adult American population, I measure how individuals perceive political differences between states, and demonstrate that as perceptions of political differences increase, so too does support for secession. Measured through multiple questions and an experimental design, these findings demonstrate a previously underexplored dynamic of the country’s partisan divisions. Both Democrats and Republicans are more likely to support secession as their awareness of the “red” and “blue” divide increases—an attitude that is statistically independent from other beliefs that motivate partisan animosity in the contemporary United States, such as populism, racial resentment, affective polarization, and ideology. While talk of an impending “civil war” may be exaggerated, the widespread prevalence of secessionist beliefs shows that the legitimacy of the country’s federal bargain is challenged by political nationalization.