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The consequences of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement for the UK’s international trade

Author

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  • Ilaria Fusacchia
  • Luca Salvatici
  • L Alan Winters

Abstract

:We analyse the likely trade effects of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), which defines the post-Brexit trading environment between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). We apply a computable general equilibrium model and focus on trade in value added rather than just the gross values of exports and imports. We describe the TCA and estimate its effects on the costs of conducting UK–EU trade, including various non-tariff barriers in both goods and services. We suggest that the TCA will reduce UK trade significantly: total exports by around 7 per cent and imports by around 14 per cent. In terms of value added (i.e. incomes generated), textiles and vehicles, both of which trade extensively with the EU, suffer heavily, as do services which trade significantly with the EU, face large increases in trade barriers, and experience declining demand from other sectors as those sectors’ exports fall. Such inter-industry linkages spread the losses from Brexit widely through the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilaria Fusacchia & Luca Salvatici & L Alan Winters, 2022. "The consequences of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement for the UK’s international trade," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(1), pages 27-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:38:y:2022:i:1:p:27-49.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/grab052
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Won Chang & L. Alan Winters, 2015. "How Regional Blocs Affect Excluded Countries: The Price Effects of MERCOSUR," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 11, pages 199-214, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Charles Cadestin & Julien Gourdon & Przemyslaw Kowalski, 2016. "Participation in Global Value Chains in Latin America: Implications for Trade and Trade-Related Policy," OECD Trade Policy Papers 192, OECD Publishing.
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    4. Alessandro Antimiani & Luca Salvatici & Ilaria Fusacchia, 2018. "GTAP-VA: An Integrated Tool for Global Value Chain Analysis," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 3(2), pages 69-105, December.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Dario Maimone Ansaldo Patti & Pietro Navarra & Giuseppe Sobbrio, 2022. "Insecure Property Rights and Conflicts: How to Solve Them?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-32, December.

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