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A Long View of Real Rates

Author

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  • Chadha, Jagjit S
  • Dimsdale, Nicholas H

Abstract

In light of the large and sustained rise in real interest rates in the late 1970s and early 1980s, this paper reviews: (i) the theoretical discussion on the determination of nominal and real interest rates; (ii) the factors determining real interest rates; and (iii) problems of defining and measuring the real rate. We go on to examine the historical record of real interest rates in France, Germany, the UK, and the USA since 1875. We find that high real rates since 1980 seem to be a return to a long-run norm, and it is the period from the Second World War to 1979 that represents a more natural period in which to investigate an abrupt change of behaviour for real interest rates. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Chadha, Jagjit S & Dimsdale, Nicholas H, 1999. "A Long View of Real Rates," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 17-45, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:15:y:1999:i:2:p:17-45
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    Cited by:

    1. Jagjit S. Chadha & Issam Samiri, 2022. "Macroeconomic Perspectives on Productivity," Working Papers 030, The Productivity Institute.
    2. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2013. "Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of “Keynesian” Policies in 1930s' Britain," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1077-1104, December.
    3. Everaert, Gerdie, 2014. "A panel analysis of the fisher effect with an unobserved I(1) world real interest rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 198-210.
    4. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Pilegaard, Rasmus & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "The output gap and the real interest rate gap in the euro area, 1960-2003," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 775-790, October.
    5. Nicholas Crafts, 2013. "Returning to Growth: Policy Lessons from History," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 255-282, June.
    6. Christian Upper & Andreas Worms, 2003. "Real long-term interest rates and monetary policy: a cross-country perspective," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 234-257, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2006. "The Case for Fiscal Policy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Philip Arestis & Jesus Ferreiro & Felipe Serrano (ed.), Financial Developments in National and International Markets, chapter 6, pages 103-117, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Lopez, Claude, 2009. "GLS-detrending and regime-wise stationarity testing in small samples," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 99-101, August.
    9. Jagjit S. Chadha, 2012. "World Real Interest Rates: A Tale of Two Regimes," Studies in Economics 1205, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    10. Nicholas Crafts, 2014. "What Does the 1930s' Experience Tell Us about the Future of the Eurozone?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 713-727, July.
    11. Verdier, Genevieve, 2008. "What drives long-term capital flows A theoretical and empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 120-142, January.
    12. Muhammad Naveed Tahir, 2011. "Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate and Financial Globalization," Working Papers 1130, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    13. Paul W. Griffin & Geoffrey P. Hammond & Jonathan B. Norman, 2016. "Industrial energy use and carbon emissions reduction: a UK perspective," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(6), pages 684-714, November.
    14. Markus Brückner & Kerstin Gerling & Hans Grüner, 2010. "Wealth inequality and credit markets: evidence from three industrialized countries," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 155-176, June.
    15. Nicholas Crafts, 2013. "Returning to growth: lessons from the 1930s," Working Papers 13010, Economic History Society.
    16. Saba Mushtaq & Danish Ahmed Siddiqui, 2016. "Effect of interest rate on economic performance: evidence from Islamic and non-Islamic economies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-14, December.
    17. Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2001. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism : A View From A High Inflationary Environment," Discussion Papers 0101, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    18. Genevieve Verdier, 2005. "The (Much Understated) Quantitative Role of Capital Accumulation and Saving," Macroeconomics 0507015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Anuradha Guru & Mandira Sarma, "undated". "Exchange Market Pressure in India," Centre for International Trade and Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Discussion Papers 12-04, Centre for International Trade and Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.
    20. Jesús Clemente & María Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañés & Marcelo Reyes, 2017. "Structural Breaks, Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence from the G7 Countries," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, February.
    21. Alex Klein & Keisuke Otsu, 2013. "Efficiency, Distortions and Factor Utilization during the Interwar Period," Studies in Economics 1317, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    22. Hammond, Geoffrey P. & Harajli, Hassan A. & Jones, Craig I. & Winnett, Adrian B., 2012. "Whole systems appraisal of a UK Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) system: Energy, environmental, and economic evaluations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 219-230.
    23. Guðmundur Guðmundsson, 2000. "Prospects of Icelandic pension funds," Economics wp06, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    24. Gavin Cameron & Chris Wallace, 2002. "Macroeconomic Performance in the Bretton Woods Era and After," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 18(4), pages 479-494.
    25. Muhammad Naveed Tahir, 2011. "Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate and Financial Globalization," Working Papers halshs-00646601, HAL.

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