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The Assessment: Real Interest Rates

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  • Allsopp, Christopher
  • Glyn, Andrew

Abstract

The assessment attempts to provide a broad explanation of the post-war pattern of real interest rates, drawing on the theoretical and empirical papers in this issue of the Oxford Review. It is argued that the concept of the "neutral" rate of interest, at which the economy grows at its productive potential without changes in the inflation rate, provides a helpful framework for understanding these developments. The neutral rate provides a bridge between, on the one hand, the fundamental determinants of real returns, as suggested by models of economic growth and, on the other hand, the functioning of asset markets and the operating procedures of central banks. The change in policy stance towards tighter money at the beginning of the 1980s is seen as having had long-lasting effects, especially when account is taken of the fiscal stance. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Allsopp, Christopher & Glyn, Andrew, 1999. "The Assessment: Real Interest Rates," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 1-16, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:15:y:1999:i:2:p:1-16
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    Cited by:

    1. Ito, Hiro, 2003. "Was Japan’s Real Interest Rate Really Too High During the 1990s? The Role of the Zero Interest Rate Bound and Other Factors," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt48k5q6vd, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    2. Genevieve Verdier, 2005. "The (Much Understated) Quantitative Role of Capital Accumulation and Saving," Macroeconomics 0507015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Christian Upper & Andreas Worms, 2003. "Real long-term interest rates and monetary policy: a cross-country perspective," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 234-257, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Gavin Cameron & Chris Wallace, 2002. "Macroeconomic Performance in the Bretton Woods Era and After," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 18(4), pages 479-494.
    5. M S Mohanty & Michela Scatigna, 2003. "Countercyclical fiscal policy and central banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal issues and central banking in emerging economies, volume 20, pages 38-70, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Gerald Epstein, 2002. "Employment-Oriented Central Bank Policy in an Integrated World Economy: A Reform Proposal for South Africa," Working Papers wp39, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    7. Saba Mushtaq & Danish Ahmed Siddiqui, 2016. "Effect of interest rate on economic performance: evidence from Islamic and non-Islamic economies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Joanne Archibald & Leni Hunter, 2001. "What is the neutral real interest rate, and how can we use it?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, September.
    9. Christopher Allsopp & David Vines, 2015. "Monetary and fiscal policy in the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 31(2), pages 134-167.
    10. Nicholas Crafts, 2013. "Returning to growth: lessons from the 1930s," Working Papers 13010, Economic History Society.

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